Weekend Recap | Natty, July 8, 2020
My leg is still asleep from not getting off the couch, pizza stains have been piling up on my shirt, and my breath pretty much permanently tastes like beer but it was a successful NFL playoff weekend for the Wild Card Round.
The Cleveland Browns literally shocked the nation and probably themselves too, the Rams saw a hero game manager performance by Jared Goff, and some dude named Taylor Heinicke nearly pulled off the upset of the century over Tom Brady. The weekend was practically the closest thing to football nirvana as you can get and we get to do it all again this week.
Here was the one thing that we didn’t love from Wild Card Weekend: The house won. Danny Ocean knew this all along back in Ocean’s Eleven but we definitely learned it this weekend. When it comes to the spread, the underdogs were absolutely feeding on it. All three Saturday games were dominated by the dogs when it came to the spread. The Colts, Rams, and Football Team all covered with Los Angeles winning outright.
If you had parlays, teasers, or straight bets with the favorites – color yourself disappointed. It felt like we went to a Nickelback concert and they didn’t play Photograph. Here’s a quote that should really make your skin itch and give you the motivation to hit a punching bag.
“Saturday was a really good day for us,” said Johnny Avello, head of sportsbook operations for DraftKings. “It started out with the Bills not covering and it went on to be a ‘dog day. Two favorites won straight up, but the dogs got there (against the spread).”
The ML was a good play in Buffalo with 86 percent of the moneyline going towards the Bills. But the Colts were pesty and they ruined a good spread. Los Angeles gave a massive F-U to their doubters. It looked like it was going to be an easy one to win with Jared Goff out but John Wolford went down immediately with a huge hit from Jamal Adams and Goff took over. Cam Akers had the game of his life and Los Angeles upset the 84 percent of moneyline bettors and 70 percent of spread bettors who loved Seattle. Seattle was -180 on the cash machine so that one is going to sting for the brave souls who took it.
But the major punch in the face on Saturday came during the night game between Tampa and Washington. The Bucs looked like winners when the spread was at -9 but a few hours before the game, Alex Smith was ruled out and it pushed the spread to -10. If you were confident before this game as a Bucs bettor, you were basically the drunk Craps player getting too much of an ego boost from the crowd after Smith was ruled out. But Taylor Heincike lit up the Bucs defense in the second half and crushed bettors. Washington lost by just eight points, killing the 52 percent of bettors who took Tampa against the number.
Sunday didn’t help too many win back their cash either. Two favorites won outright with the Ravens and Saints but the Browns did cause some havoc in their dominating win over Pittsburgh. Did we tell you to bet the Steelers -6 last week? Don’t worry about it. On a side note, if you took a Bears ML or spread bet, get off this website right now. You don’t deserve to place a wager if that’s the case.
Anyways, Baltimore took it to the Titans and crushed anyone who had Derrick Henry running for over 124 yards. He was limited to less than 50 and the Ravens defense has a scary look to it. BetMGM had a massive $240,000 bet on the Ravens to cover -3 and they hit that with flying colors. The same thing happened with the Saints where a bettor placed $210,000 on the Saints to cover and it was never even close.
Speaking of the Saints, BAD BEAT ALERT. Holy crap did this one hurt to watch for those who had Chicago +11.5. The Bears trailed 21-3 going into their last drive but the two-minute defense got sloppy and the Bears got a garbage time TD from Jimmy Graham. This made the game 21-9 and an extra point would have made it an 11 point deficit and a Bears spread win. BUT, they never kicked the extra point (when did that become allowed) and the Saints ended up winning by 12.
And finally, we get to the cream of the crop in terms of betting this weekend with the Browns who were 6-point road dogs and +205 on the line. No one saw this coming and for the Browns to win a game like this without head coach Kevin Stefanski was incredible. Cleveland absolutely dominated throughout this game despite 69 percent of bettors backing Pittsburgh. The biggest winner of the day was a bettor who placed $500,000 on the Browns +5.5. Hindsight 20/20, he probably wishes that money had fallen on the line but I’ll take that payday anytime.
Next week, we have two games on Saturday and two on Sunday and hopefully the action should be just as good and we are praying that the betting is a bit better.
BONUS NATTY LOCK: Per usual, you have endured the length of this article and as a thank you, we are giving you our Sports Gambling Guide National Championship LOCK of Alabama 1Q (-.5)
This number seems way too low seeing as the Crimson Tide are the third highest scoring first quarter team in the country while allowing a measly 3.3 points to opponents during the first quarter. Trey Sermon had a big game last week so the ball could be run quite a bit in the beginning to set temp which should run some clock. The Crimson Tide have yet to trail after a first quarter has ended and they’ve led in 10 of 12.