The Trend: Winning Numbers Before Postseason, May 13th
Lebron is bitching, the Knicks are winning, and the Sixers are the top seed in the East. One thing in that sentence makes sense and the other two absolutely do not. We have less than a week to go until the NBA Playoffs begin with the very fun play-in tournament starting things off and I figured now is as good of a time as ever to break down some NBA trends and let you in on some numbers that will hopefully boast your betting pockets moving forward.
For one, if you have not been on the New York Knicks train, I am not really sure what you’ve been doing. I may not be the world’s greatest bettor, but I am up 17 units over the last 20 Knicks games because this team is allergic to not covering. It has gotten to a point where the Knicks can actually do no wrong in my eyes. I am a Boston Celtics fan through and through, but with my team sinking quicker than the Titanic, I am actually rooting for New York in the postseason because they have been just so damn good to me all season long.
The Knicks have just been downright dominant on the spread and they’ve gone on one of the most successful stretches that we have seen in a longtime. They’ve actually been a really good team against the spread all season long, but April is when they absolutely popped off and couldn’t be stopped. In 17 games, they covered 15 of them. A lot of this has to do with the Knicks having the best defense in the NBA, but the other part that helped them was actually Vegas.
Despite a lengthy winning streak and them showing just how good they were against the spread, Vegas continues to give New York points pretty consistently. Even when they are favorites, it’s never by a figure that I would scoff at. In their last 14 games, the Knicks were getting points in 11 of those. During that stretch, they covered 11 different times, some as favorites, some as dogs. In the three games they gave points, they won each of them. Those games as favorites, they were giving -10, -1.5, and -5.
They are 14-2 in their last 16 home games as favorites and I am willing to continue betting that line over and over again. Right now, New York is slated to play the Milwaukee Bucks which truly is unfortunate. In the three games that they’ve played Milwaukke so far, they have gone 2-1 ATS and 2-1 straight up. In those three games, the Knicks were given 11 and 13 points as dogs and in one game, they gave 2.5 and covered. I would expect Vegas to give the Knicks 6-7 points in the first few games of the series with the Knicks on the road against the three-seed and it seems like a no-brainer to me. Milwaukee historically struggles in the postseason and I am all on the Thibs train.
The other quick trend that I’d like to throw out there is that the Phoenix Suns are burning the OVER as of late. We won’t go into much detail with this one but the Suns have hit the posted number in their last six games. They score really well and they have inconsistent nights on defense. It looks like the Suns are going to get either the Lakers or the Warriors in Round 1 as long as they lock up the number two seed.
In three games against Golden State this year, the OVER has gone 1-2. When playing against the Lakers, who have a great defense, the OVER has gone 2-1 but those numbers were relatively low. That tells me one of two things. With the OVER riding hot recently, Vegas may inflate too high of a number and the UNDER will crush when it comes to the postseason or they will keep it at a spot where that total may be higher but is very attainable each night. I am personally hoping for the first option.
Sixers (+2.5) vs Miami
The Sixers won eight games in a row and then took a bad loss to the Pacers so the number one team in the Eastern conference is now getting 2.5 points against a beat-up Heat team that took advantage of a horrible Celtics team? Sign me up. The Sixers have beat the Heat in the last two games as favorites so I have no worries actually getting points in this matchup, even if Embiid sits.
“New-York Knicks in the Madison Square Garden” by Jean-Baptiste Bellet is licensed with CC BY 2.0. To view a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/