Trend Thursday: Winner in MACtion, Feb. 11
Guys, tough news. There is no longer football to be watched or bet on – unless you are really into FCS ball. Actually scratch that, the second there is some FCS ball, we are about to go wild with content but until then basketball and hockey will rule our lives.
I’m okay with that. Trends in those two sports aren’t overly complicated. You don’t have to be Bradley Cooper in Limitless, snorting NZT-48 to compute the obvious. The trends in basketball are there for the taking and this season they have been really consistent. What I mean by that is when Drake decided to cover every goddamn game, they did a pretty good job of it. They are still an incredible 15-3 against the book.
But you already know the Drake numbers and we have a new team for you to fully jump on board with: the Ball State Cardinals. Yeah, I said it. And no, I am not ashamed of it. If you have any prejudice against the MAC, then go Fu*k yourself. This is a beautiful conference that brings us joy every Tuesday and Wednesday during the football season and then wins us money in basketball season.
You already know how much we love Toledo. The Rockets are an electric team that covers at all costs. But now we are really into the Ball State Cardinals. The reason being is because they blow through the over like it is no one’s business. If you thought GameStop could get high, you have not seen these beauties in red, up and down the court, scoring at will like they contain the plague and everyone is jumping out of the way.
This may come as a surprise to you because it definitely comes as a surprise to me, but Ball State is the best team to hit the OVER in the entire NCAA. They have flown the total in 81 percent of their games this season, going 13-3-0 with a 2.2 point margin. I myself am not a guy who typically catches a ton of Ball State games so this really floored my world.
Here is my favorite thing about Ball State totals, they get scorching hot. At two different points this season, they have had stretches where they hit seven straight overs and then another where they hit five straight overs. In their last three games, they have gone 1-2 on the OVER but the last one was a total flyover – one that made the Super Bowl flyover look dumb.
This entire season they have yet to have an OVER that hit and only lasted for one game. This means a streak is coming and it should be quite profitable for all of us. In their three UNDERS of the season, the totals were 140.5, 146.5, and 154. They typically average a total that is between 129 and 144. When their total is set at 145 or less, they are 10-1. They have even put up OVERS on bigger numbers like 153.5, in which they cleared the total by a point and a half.
Ball State is averaging 70.75 points per game and allowing 72.88 per contest. That means they rank very low on the defensive end of things. They score a lot and give up a lot. If you remember from our trend about the Nets and the Nuggets, we love that outcome. ‘
With these numbers in mind, you can basically book an OVER if the total is set at 140 or lower. I’m serious, I would bet every single Ball State game as a lock if the total is 140 or less. I would suggest really taking a close look at their opponent all the way up to 145. And I would even consider taking a bet up to 150 as long as the matchup was favorable.
Shoutout to the loyal ones who stuck around all the way down here. You know Tex loves loyalty so I’m giving you a nice little free pick for the night. I love the 76ers right now, they are a cover machine. They take on the Trailblazers tonight who basically throw Dame Lillard out there and hope for the best. The Sixers are 14-9-2 against the book this year and they are a very healthy team at the moment. While I love Dame, I like Philly more and the 5.5 is too much to pass up.
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