Trend: Down Goes NDSU, April 22
Hello you wonderful degenerates who are reading betting articles in the middle of the week because studying gambling trends just makes way more sense than studying the data sheet your boss asked you to review.
What a wonderful week it is with plenty of great sports going on and some football action this weekend that we are not going to ignore. The FCS Playoffs start on Saturday with a ton of games going on. I’m not sure why I have never been more into the FCS Playoffs considering it’s just a smaller-scale march madness for football. It typically isn’t played this time of year but with COVID throwing a loop into plans, it got postponed until now.
One game we are going to dive into is the matchup between North Dakota State and Eastern Washington. Even if you know jack shit about the FCS, you know that North Dakota State is a powerhouse in the league and they win just about every year. In fact, they are going for their fourth-straight National Championship win in these playoffs but they aren’t going to get it. In fact, I have a big prediction that they won’t even be getting through the first round. Their quarterback would have been Trey Lance, but he’s been busy doing some other things over the last few months.
That has left them with an absolute nobody at quarterback who has struggled mightily. Now, they are facing an FCS team with the best overall offense in the country. That is because they have a dual-threat quarterback who threw for 2,192 yards and 18 touchdowns with just six interceptions in a shortened season. Because their namesake is so great, the eight national championships have something to do with that, NDSU is getting 7.5 points here in the first round.
The issue is that Eastern Washington has won five straight games, put up 46 and 62 in two of those and has scored at least 32 points in every single win. I like a team that can score a ton of points and if we are talking about an FCS Playoff with this format, I am banking on a team that can score. The trend here is to back the offensive favorites which the Eagles are and I see them having no issue scoring enough to at the very least cover 7.5 points.
The second trend I want to examine is the OVER/UNDER record of the Cincinnati Reds. If you’ve seen the Reds this season, you know they are a fun group with a knack for hitting absolute bombs and playing very aggressively. That has led them to hitting the OVER in 70.6 percent of their games which leads the MLB with a 12-5 record. Even better, they are crushing the posted number by an average of 2.1 points in those games.
That means this Reds team is going to continue to hit that OVER even as Vegas begins to increase their line gradually by about a .5 run in the coming weeks. The Reds rank second in slugging and OPS. And they rank third in average and on-base percentage. This team knows how to manufacture runs and for the time being, their pitching isn’t doing much to keep the score low. My advice would be to continue to smash that line until Vegas has them fully figured out.
Suns vs Celtics (Bos +6)
The Suns have been absolutely insane lately but I don’t love them coming off a back-to-back in the midst of their third-game on a five-game East coast swing. The Celtics are playing incredible defense when they have Marcus Smart on the floor and they should have him, Kemba Walker, and Jayson Tatum as a full-go tonight. 6 is a lot of points to cover when on the road in this spot and Boston is 5-1 ATS in their last 5.