Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) warms up before an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Oct. 10, 2021, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Emilee Chinn)

TNF: PACKERS VS CARDINALS, BEST BETS/PROPS, OCT. 28

Patrick Werkmeister

For this non-traditionally exciting Thursday night matchup, two titans of the NFC go head to head as they fight for playoff contention. From State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals host Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. With the Cards at 7-0 and Green Bay at 6-1, these teams sit atop of the league with two of the best records. However, injuries to key players will affect how both sides fair in this contest. Still, it is an outstanding game to take advantage of during a dull weekday to hopefully make some money with. The last 3 outings for ‘NFL Best Bets’ have gone 1-2, 0-3, and 1-2, respectively, so approach with some caution. Nonetheless, here are the plays I love the most for this match.

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Packers (+6.5)
Due to heavy casualties for the Packers, like star receiver Davante Adams, Arizona comes into this one as a heavy six and a half-point home favorite. Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers must enjoy the spotlight because in their last 9 primetime games they are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS. While the Packers comfortably handled Washington in their 24-10 victory last Sunday, Arizona laid a beatdown on the Texans to stay undefeated on the season.

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However, Green Bay is not the only ones with critical injuries on their side. Defensive end J.J. Watt will be out for this one and All-Pro WR DeAndre Hopkins will be a game-time decision. Although Green Bay’s margin of victory was much smaller than the Cardinals, Aaron Rodgers flourished versus the WFT pass defense with an almost perfect game. As long as number 12 is under center for the Packers, Green Bay has a shot at covering this inflated point spread. Take the green and yellow to keep it within this large margin.

Aaron Rodgers Over 254.5 Passing Yards
After a flawless performance against a more than formidable defense, one would think this passing prop for Aaron Rodgers would be much higher. In Week 7, Rodgers was an efficient 27/35 for 274 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Although he will be without his favorite target Davante Adams this week, in his last six games, Rodgers has thrown for 15 touchdowns and just one interception. In this kind of efficiency, it won’t matter who Rodgers has at receiver, he will still find a savvy way to come up with yardage through the air. With a predominantly pass-heavy offense, Aaron happens to have to carry most of the weight on offense. This favors his passing prop, even though they have a solid running back in Aaron Jones. However, Jones has had a steady workload in the passing game and is perhaps just as well respected as a receiver. With still a lot of passing options, Vegas oddsmakers are overlooking Rodgers’s sole playmaking ability. Take him to get it done through the air where he should have an overall big night. 

Robert Tonyan Any Time TD (+200)
With injuries to key touchdown scorers like Davante Adams, this opens up the end zone to a menagerie of Packers receivers. Just because he doesn’t have his number one target, it does not mean the great Aaron Rodgers won’t still be great. At the receiver position will be a committee of players such as Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Equanimeous St. Brown. This rag-tag group of receivers may not look like much, but due to Rodgers’s craftiness he will be sure to get them into the mix. However, there is one Packer in particular Rodgers has a familiar connection with. In Green Bay’s primetime Week 2 matchup with the Lions, for our ‘Best Bets’ article, I chose Robert Tonyan for a touchdown and it hit with ease. Once again, I like Tonyan in this matchup. With odds of +200, this prop has outstanding value due to the fact he had 13 TDs with Rodgers last year. Without Adams, I have a really hard time imaging Tonyan not being the first guy they look to near the goal line. Take Bob to score a TD and expect him to elegantly compliment Rodgers play all game.

Same Game Parlay:
Kyler Murray Anytime TD Scorer, Robert Tonyan Jr Anytime TD Scorer, Aaron Rodgers Over 254.5 Passing Yards, Aaron Rodgers Over 9.5 Rushing Yards, James Conner Over 45.5 Rushing Yards, Aaron Jones Over 59.5 Rushing Yards, Zach Ertz Over 32.5 Receiving Yards and Arizona to win by 1-13 Points.

SGP Odds +50819

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