Indianapolis Colts quarterback Carson Wentz
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Carson Wentz (2) is pressured by Tennessee Titans linebacker David Long (51) in the second half of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Oct. 31, 2021. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)


Patrick Werkmeister

Following an 0-3 outing on MNF’s edition of ‘Best Bets’, these picks have been quite volatile the past week. However, this Thursday night contest should turn out to be profitable. In this AFC matchup, rookie running back Michael Carter and the New York Jets look to steal one on the road against RB Jonathan Taylor and the Indianapolis Colts. Last week, the Jets pulled off a stunning upset win over the Bengals and Indianapolis lost in an overtime heartbreaker to the Titans. This battling Jets squad carries a lot of momentum coming into this one whereas the Colts suffered a major setback in their divisional race. With all this in mind, here is what plays I love for this matchup.

Draft Kings nfl pROMOTION

Jets (+10.5)
The opening line had New York as large 14.5 point road dogs but following their surprising win over Cincinnati they are now listed as 10.5 point underdogs. While the Colts have proven they can compete with most teams, they aren’t good enough to be laying 10 or more points against anyone. With now five losses on the year, Indy only has three wins, two of which came from the Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans. On the other hand, the Jets have had two of the most impressive victories against some of the premier teams in the league. Following the replacement of rookie QB Zach Wilson due to injury with Mike White, the new quarterback threw for over 400 yards in a sensational performance last week. The Colts defense currently allows the 7th-most passing yards per attempt and 2nd most passing touchdowns let up. If the trend continues, like it has the first eight weeks, he will have more than enough in his bag to keep New York within 10. Take the Jets plus the points.

Carson Wentz Over 240.5 Passing Yards
After throwing it 51 times in their Week 8 loss, Carson Wentz should find better success through the air in this matchup. Although he was only able to throw for 231 yards last week, with two interceptions thrown, he just wasn’t able to get things going vs this Titans defense. However, he has shown massive production where he has thrown over this total in half of his starts and has a 400-yard game on his 2021 resume. Even in their win over the Bengals, New York still allowed over 300 passing yards and has struggled in that area. Their defense will have their hands full in this one having to deal with the two headed monster of Wentz and Taylor. Therefore, I expect Wentz to produce while the Jets focus on trying to stop the run first. Take the over for Carson Wentz passing. 

Michael Carter Any Time TD (+155)
With some playmakers out with injury for the Jets, rookie Michael Carter has served as a primary touchdown scorer for this offense. In addition to Zach Wilson, WR Corey Davis will also be out for their offense. They have been without these two important pieces for a while and Carter has stepped up big in their absence. In the win last week, he had 172 yards from scrimmage, 9 receptions, and one touchdown. He is a very dangerous multi-purpose back that will definitely be their best chance at getting in the end zone for this one. While Carter acts as Mike White’s favorite safety valve, he has also shown great success on the ground where he ran for 77 yards last week. Being the top running and receiving option means if they’re down near the goal line, he is sure to get a look. Take him to run one in as the Jets try to pull off another upset.

Same Game Parlay
Michael Carter Anytime TD Scorer, Jonathan Taylor to score 2+ TDs, Carson Wentz Over 240.5 Pass Yds, Ty Johnson Over 21.5 Rec Yds, Jonathan Taylor Over 17.5 Rec Yds, Michael Carter Over 37.5 Rec Yds, Colts to won by 1-13 Pts and Under 54.5 Total Pts.

SGP Odds +37603

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