Chicago White Sox

Thursday Trend: First Five, May 6

We still have a few more months of the NBA season, but we are not that far away from there being that time of the summer where there is no NBA, no hockey, and just simply baseball to watch. Now, I am not complaining about that time frame but I also know that people who rely heavily on NBA bets are going to feel absolutely lost. To combat any difficulties these people may have, I am dedicating this trend to Major League Baseball and a couple of patterns we are already seeing go down. 

The MLB is a sport where you must be especially tapped into the different pitchers and players and when they are playing to be successful and that will make a little more sense as I show you the few trends we have already seen this season. 

What I really want to look at is the “First 5” bets. This is comparable to a first-half bet in football or basketball.  This is when you are betting solely on what will happen in the first 5 innings of a baseball game. There are some teams that get out to hot starts, and others who may not have their bats wake up until the end of the game. These bets are also tricky when it comes to a team that has a great rotation but a poor bullpen so their overall record may not accurately depict their first five records. 

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The most profitable team in the first five innings is the Chicago White Sox. They are 19-4-6 and up nine units when you bet them on it. When they are at home, they are even a game better. In their last 10 games, they are 6-2-2. The Sox have a stellar rotation, they have a powerful offense, and they have been scoring early and often. 

The second most profitable team is the San Francisco Giants, yes, it surprises me as well. They are 17-10-4 this season and dominating during the first five at home with a 9-3-1 record. They have three qualifying starters and two of them have ERAs that are 2.04 or better and WHIPs that are under 1.00. The Giants bullpen is hit or miss but that doesn’t mean shit when it comes to the first five which is why they’re a great move. 

On top of the teams, there are a few pitchers that are the ones to bet on and some to bet against whenever they take the mound. Somehow, somehow, Matt Harvey is the most profitable first five pitcher in the league right now. He is 5-0-1 on the first five and frankly, that makes 0 sense. Other options are Jack Flaherty and Kevin Gausman. 

On the other end of the spectrum, the pitcher to bet against in the first five whenever he is on the bump is Jose Urena. He is 0-5-1 in his starts this year, getting crushed in the first five. Urena has struggled this season coupled with the Marlins being the second-worst first five team in the league, Urena is a guy to immediately bet against. After him, I wouldn’t mind throwing money on Marco Gonzales whose ERA has ballooned to 5.40. On top of that, Seattle not hitting is killing him in the first five.

I don’t love betting full MLB games because they are too unpredictable, the values typically set, and on any given day, the worst team can beat the best team. That’s the reason I like betting on the first five because there are trends that are able to back the numbers up. 

Free Play: Brooklyn -3.5 

The Nets are on a bit of a skid, dropping three straight with two of them coming to the Milwaukee Bucks. That skid has to end and tonight is the night to do it as they take on a Kristaps-less Dallas Mavericks. Brooklyn is a far more offensively efficient team and they are shooting the three ball very well right now. Lay the points and back Brooklyn.

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