New York Rangers
NEWARK, NJ - SEPTEMBER 23: The New York Rangers celebrate a 4-3 preseason victory over the New Jersey Devils on September 23, 2011 at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ.

The Trend: Tommy’s Unders and the NHL, Feb 4

It is here. We have been waiting a very, very long time for this week. As I type these words, I feel a little bit emotional, I feel as if my hands could fall off the keys and weep with joy. There is no other way to put it. It is Week 4 of the National Hockey League season. These guys are grit and they are menacing. 

Side note: It also is Super Bowl week and I know that not many of you readers care about that so I’ll just throw a blurb in here or something and then get back to what we really care about: the ice. 

[Hours Later] 

Hey guys, sorry. I was having some recreational fun with my buddy Cheech but it has subsided and now we can get down to business and the greatest game ever played. Since I lured you in with that compelling hockey bit, I’ll also throw down a nice little NHL trend that you can use on a game tonight. All in all, I am a standup dude. 

Tom Brady has his work cut out for him in this one and if you don’t think this is going to be a tight game, you’re crazy. Brady has six Super Bowl rings, in all of those games, Brady has led a game-winning drive. This means that not one of those wins came with tons of time left on the clock or up 20 in the 4th. This is going to be a game that comes down to the wire and it’s going to be nauseating for all parties involved. If you’re smart, do what Dickie V did and grab a gallon of Pepto Bismol to keep your bowels intact.

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I combed back through Super Bowl history and then again for Tom Brady Super Bowl history and something stuck out to me like Brian Scalabrine used to stick out on a talented roster. Brady is 4-5 when it comes to hitting the OVER in his Super Bowls. In general, the over has hit in just one more game than the under, 27 to 26. 

But if you really look at Brady’s Super Bowl totals, they’re not all that promising that this OVER will fly. For this game on Sunday, the total has been posted at 56 points. That is the second largest total in Brady’s Super Bowl history, the largest was 57 against the Falcons and it literally took the greatest comeback in football history and an overtime touchdown to hit that. 

There were four other Super Bowls where the total was above 50 points, not a single one of them hit. You may be thinking, this is the Chiefs vs the Bucs, points will be scored at an all-time high rate. Will it though? These two teams played just a few months ago and the final score was 27-24. I’m no math wizard but that doesn’t add up to 56. 

In the last 20 years, dating all the way back to 2001, there have been just six Super Bowls where the number to beat was over 50 points. The UNDER hit in five of those six games. Including last year’s Super Bowl where it was set at 53. Yes, the Chiefs played in that game. 

I’m not saying these teams won’t score, but I am telling you that 56 is a ton of points in a game that has the best rush defense in the National Football League and sacked Aaron Rodgers five times two weeks ago. 

NHL 

For the loyal readers, let’s go into one more trend as promised at the top. We haven’t delved into the hockey world as much as we should be so let’s give some love to the toughest men to skate the planet. 

I love goals in hockey, nothing makes a game as fun. So while I’m not a huge believer of the OVER in Super Bowl 55, I am a huge believer of the OVER when the Washington Capitals take the ice. 

The Capitals are scoring like mad men right now, led currently by Nicholas Backstrom. There is no team in the NHL who has hit the OVER more this season than Washington, compiling an 8-2 record when it comes to the total. 

In those 10 games, the Caps have scored at least four goals five different times. Their total has never been higher than 6.5 and when they are scoring more than 61 percent of that 50 percent of the time, those are good odds. 

The other great thing about the Capitals is that they rank 25th in the league when it comes to scoring defense. Translation: they love to give up goals as well. Henrik Lundqvist was supposed to be their starting goalie this year but had open heart surgery and is done for the season. That means a lack of experience in net for Washington opens up the door for plenty of action. 

They take on the New York Rangers tonight and the total is posted at 6. Take the over.

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