The Trend: MLB Futures, Mar. 4
Happy March to all you degenerates out there, we are that much closer to betting all 63 games of March Madness and either winning enough money to tell my boss to suck it or to ask my wife for forgiveness. We have MLB Spring Training that has finally started and the NBA All-Star Break is here.
Because the All-Star breaks means a week of no regular-season NBA betting and that game is just a contest to see who can basically hit 200 points first, this edition of The Trend is going to be a little bit different. Don’t worry, at the end, we are going to throw in an All-Star prop bet and give you a free play of the day.
I want to talk about futures. The MLB season is a few weeks away from fully getting underway and now is the time to cash in the top future bets you may have. This could be for the division, the Pennant, the World Series, MVP, Cy Young, etc. I’m going to break down three different trends that could help you lock in some really solid future bets.
American League Central
Since 2014, every single team besides the Chicago White Sox has won the division. I think that changes this year. The White Sox have one of the youngest, most talented rosters in all of Major League Baseball. Their only real downfall is that their manager is 100-years-old and will probably say a few racist things throughout the season which will piss off everyone besides their ownership.
Chicago was just a game back of winning the Central a year ago and this year they should be even better. Their offense is absolutely stacked and they have plenty of minor league talent to come up and fill holes. Right now this is a bet you can find some places at -135 or others at +105. Chicago is going to be a hot team this year and I think jumping on them sooner rather than later is the smartest play. For a division that flip-flops winners quite a bit, based on trend, we like it to flop again.
American League Rookie of the Year
Here is something interesting about the American League Rookie of the Year: The award has gone to an outfielder in three of the last four years. The one year it wasn’t an outfielder was when Shohei Ohtani won and he is a pitcher and hitter so it’s slightly unfair. There is a lot of great talent at the outfield rookie position in the AL and I think we see another one win it.
The obvious choice is Randy Arozarena. Confused as to why he is on this list despite absolutely dominating the MLB playoffs last year? It’s because he didn’t qualify for enough at-bats in the regular season, meaning he is still eligible for the award. This is huge because he is a rookie who will come in as the starter, without a question, and we have already seen just how effective this dude is when it comes to hitting at the MLB level. He hit 1.022 OPS in 23 regular-season games, followed by a .377/.442/.831 line in the postseason that included 10 home runs and an ALCS MVP Award. His current odds to win AL ROY are set at +400. You won’t see this number this low again.
If you are looking to sprinkle around some love, consider going with Jarred Kelenic at +775 or Ryan Mountcastle at +1300.
A Dark Horse Trend:
Ok, here is the deepest dark horse trend I can give you. The Boston Red Sox have had five different managers (six different hirings with Alex Cora coming back) since the 2004 season. In three of those managers’ first years, Terry Francona, John Farrell, and Alex Cora, the Red Sox won the World Series.
The Red Sox were not favored to win the World Series in the beginning of the year during the 2004, 2013, or 2018 season. By no means are they favored to win the World Series this year either. But Alex Cora is back and this could be considered another “first-year championship run.”
The Red Sox don’t look scary on paper but they are getting back Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez in their rotation. They have a ton of young talent with Bobby Dalbec, Jarren Duran, Alex Verdugo, and Rafeal Devers. I don’t typically ever advise someone to throw a ton of money on a longshot like this, but the Red Sox will be better than they are projected to be and if you can hop in on this Red Sox WS train at +4875, the Pennant at +2200, or the AL East at +1933, I would.
NBA All-Star Prop: Lebron James first pick Bradley Beal +800
Bradley Beal is going to be a free-agent after this season and it isn’t crazy to think that Lebron James is going to have a hand in recruiting him to Los Angeles. The best way to start that recruitment is to make sure he is on the same All-Star squad as him.
Tonight’s Free Play: Oklahoma State +12 vs Baylor
The Baylor Bears have already locked up the Big 12 Title and have played for just about all they can play for. OSU is a really good team in close games, having an 8-4 record in games decided by 5 points or less. They are 4-1 in their last 5 against the spread. I love Baylor but this is a really big number to cover.