SNEAKY NBA DFS PICKS FOR MARCH 7
Eight games on the slate tonight – pretty busy for a Monday and pretty rife with interesting plays throughout. Last week was not the best one for me and my DFS plays, so as much as Mondays can suck for a lot of folks, I’m choosing to look at today as a fresh start and a chance to begin what will be a far, far more successful week of betting. Right? Ha ha. Right? Just nod, please – at this point I could use the validation. How was that little diversion for inspiring confidence that you should follow my lead with your betting today? Bloodied but undeterred, we press on…
KARL-ANTHONY TOWNS, C, ($9,200 on FanDuel, $10,600 on DraftKings)
I had KAT on my list of recommendations the last time he played, which was Saturday against the woebegone Blazers and that turned out pretty well. He went off for 36 points, 15 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 blocks in 34 minutes despite not making any three-pointers in the game. Well, guess who the T-Wolves play again tonight? That’s right – that same terrible Portland team that is officially tanking the rest of the way and not playing about half of their already terrible roster. A couple of additional plusses for tonight – (1) Minnesota will be at home and (2) they’re again going to be without Anthony Edwards – meaning Towns’ usage rates will soar. In eight games this year without Ant Man in the lineup Towns is averaging just under 1.6 DFS points per minute. All those factors coming together and still just $9,200 on FD is a can’t miss.
BRANDON WILLIAMS, PG, Portland ($3,800 on DraftKings, $3,500 on FanDuel)
Sure, the Trail Blazers might get blown out tonight in Minnesota, but someone is going to have to play serious minutes for them and distribute the ball. With Anfernee Simons, Justise Winslow, Jusuf Nurkic, Damian Lillard and Eric Bledsoe all out tonight, not only is Williams likely to be Portland’s starting point guard, but he’s a good bet for serious minutes, too. In his last game (Saturday vs. the same T-Wolves) he averaged a DFS point per game over 26 minutes and both of those totals keep rising as the season continues. Williams was an undrafted rookie that Portland recently signed to a two-way contract after he’d been on just 10-day deals and they may want to see what they’ve got in him as their lost season peters to an end. At his cheap price tonight, you can’t lose on either platform. Keep an eye on his teammate Eli Hughes – who’s even a bit cheaper on DK – for the same reasons.
JORDAN POOLE, PG/SG, Golden State ($5,300 on DraftKings, $4,700 on FanDuel)
Tonight it’s almost like all the players from the Warriors are going to a bachelor party in Vegas and Poole is the only regular who doesn’t know the dude who’s getting married, so he’s going to Denver instead. Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, Andrew Wiggins and Gary Payton II are all out of action for this evening’s game vs. the Nuggets. This means Poole has suddenly become Golden State’s #1 offensive option, pushing his usage rates to somewhere around 35% in the Mile High City today. He’s ridiculously inexpensive on both platforms for someone in that position and will be next to impossible to not roster in tournament play.
MOSES MOODY, SG/SF, Golden State ($3,200 on DraftKings, $3,500 on FanDuel)
Pro tip: the same key players that will be missing for Jordan Poole’s Golden State team will also be missing for Moody’s Warriors team tonight. Moody is an absolute bargain basement value play tonight, with his salary on both formats floating nicely just above the minimum. He hasn’t really proven himself to be a consistent stats guy on a per minute basis, especially Saturday when he had just 9 points and 1 rebound in 21 minutes vs. the Lakers – but in fairness, the rest of his teammates were just standing around watching the Lebron James show, too. He’s almost a guarantee to log at least that many minutes again tonight in Denver and the Nuggets are the absolute worst team in the NBA at defending combo wing players like him, so his ceiling and position versatility (DK only) and opponent make him a good target if you’d also like to roster James Harden or Luka tonight. And who wouldn’t want to do that?
MALIK BEASLEY, SG/SF, Minnesota ($3,600 on FanDuel, $4,300 on DraftKings)
It appears that DK is a little more aware of how well Beasley has been shooting the ball from distance over the last two weeks and have adjusted their price somewhat to reflect that. On FanDuel he’s an absolute steal tonight, especially with Anthony Edwards, Patrick Beverley and Taurean Prince all probably out of Minnesota’s lineup tonight. Over his last five games, Beasley has made 23 of 41 of his attempts from three-point land (a whopping 56%) and tonight he’s facing a Portland team that is among the league’s worst-defending teams even when healthy (which they ain’t). He was on his way to a really nice night on Saturday vs. the Blazers before being ejected by referees in the third quarter. Look for him to make up for his early removal tonight at a price that’s exceptionally affordable, especially on FD.