SNEAKY NBA DFS PICKS FOR MARCH 15
Slim pickings tonight, friends. Only four games on the slate, so you’ll have to be shrewd. One thing working in our favor to play DFS tonight is the fact that a few of the eight teams playing tonight (Detroit, Indiana and Orlando) are among the worst defensive teams in the NBA, meaning that their opponents could be in for a good night. That said, I’m going to start this list with kind of a strange suggestion for a guy who’s been kinda buried on one of those bad teams.
KILLIAN HAYES, PG, Detroit ($4,300 on FanDuel, $3,900 on DraftKings)
The narrative on Hayes since he was selected by the Pistons with the 7th overall pick of the 2020 NBA Draft has been that he’s been a bust. During his rookie season he averaged just 6.8 points and 5.3 assists while shooting under 28% from behind the arc. Almost unbelievably, those numbers have been even worse this year despite playing comparable minutes. However, about a month ago Detroit Head Coach Dwayne Casey moved Hayes to the bench, where he would run the second team offense and the results have been better. The French native has scored more than 25 DFS points in three of his last five games and is shooting the ball a bit better, too. He’s got a tough matchup tonight in Miami but your choices tonight are slim – if you want to roster one or two stars then you’ll have to throw a dart or two. I’m throwing some of mine in his direction.
KYLE LOWRY, PG, Miami ($6,600 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel)
He’s been ice cold from a shooting perspective over his last four games, making just four buckets in that span. Yes, four. Despite the struggles scoring, Lowry is still putting up some DFS value by averaging 9 assists per game over his last five. The Heat are back at full strength tonight with everyone healthy for the first time in what seems like ages and they’re at home facing a Detroit Pistons team that is among the NBA’s worst at defending opposing point guards. His low(ish) price tag today is a result of his recent shooting woes, but tonight would be a good night to take a chance on him heating up again. He’s too good a shooter not to even things out at some point.
DEVIN BOOKER, SG/PG, Phoenix ($9,600 on DraftKings, $10,400 on FanDuel)
The fact that Booker has been averaging nearly 55 DFS points per game since Chris Paul went down with a thumb injury and he is still less than five figures on DraftKings is pretty difficult to comprehend. Rather than standing around with your mouth agape thinking about it, don’t think twice – just put him on your squad. The Pelicans are a middling defensive team and the Suns are pretty close to an unstoppable offensive force, even without CP3 active. Booker’s volume has increased almost 5% since the All-Star break and he’s shown no signs of slowing down. Ride this train until his price point (finally) gets to where it probably should be.
BRUCE BROWN, SF, Brooklyn ($5,700 on FanDuel, $5,200 on DraftKings)
In four of his last five games, Brown has scored at least 34.75 DFS points on DraftKings and even higher on FanDuel where his solid steals numbers count higher. The Nets have been rolling lately and tonight they’re looking at what should be a good game for them to keep the good vibes rolling as they head into Orlando. Seth Curry is questionable tonight for Brooklyn and LaMarcus Aldridge is out again, so there will be some need for the guys who are available to log serious minutes – Brown included. The Magic are among the worst defensive teams in the league against a wing player like him and his salary on both formats is easily manageable.
TYUS JONES, PG, Memphis ($3,400 on DraftKings, $4,200 on FanDuel)
The big fantasy/DFS news tonight is that the Grizzlies’ All-Star point guard Ja Morant is doubtful with a sore back. If Morant does indeed decide to play it safe and stay in street clothes tonight, it immediately makes Tyus Jones a must-roster player on both formats. Jones has been better than a DFS point-per-minute player this season already (approximately 1.1), but has been averaging only approximately 19 minutes per game. Tonight, against a Pacers team that is a bottom five in the NBA defensively and could be missing a few key players, he should see his minutes increase to more than 30 and spend more time with the first team offense. At his price point, he’s probably a must-roster tonight even if Morant somehow does play. The value opportunity is just too potent and his ceiling is huge for a player that inexpensive.