SNEAKY NBA DFS PICKS FOR MARCH 12
Seven games on the slate tonight and none of them begin until 8pm – an advantageous evening of basketball for DFS sharps. The action will all take place in a concentrated period of time, meaning you won’t have to set a lineup before you know exactly what’s going on with injuries/rest, etc. These sneaky picks are being sent out at around noon, so make sure you check back on all of them before your lineup locks. There are a lot of premium options today – Jokic, Giannis, Steph, Murray…so you can have some fun choosing among the luxury items as well as the cheap chalk.
JIMMY BUTLER, PF/SF/SG, Miami ($8,000 on FanDuel, $8,500 on DraftKings)
He played 34 minutes last night in Miami’s win vs. Cleveland and returned approximately 1.3 DFS points per minute. After missing several games with illness and nagging injuries over the last 6 weeks, Butler looks to be returning to form as the regular season begins to wind down. The absences were probably by design, anyway – Butler is 32 now and the Heat rightly consider themselves contenders in the East, so they’ll want him fully healthy and rested in hopes he can replicate his legendary performance in the 2020 playoff bubble. Tonight, he faces a good matchup in a Minnesota team that arrived in Miami late last night after losing in Orlando. His price is pretty fair and he’s eligible at three different spots depending on which platform you’re on. Those factors make him a cornerstone I can build around at a reasonable price point and ownership level tonight.
ANTHONY EDWARDS, SG/SF, Minnesota ($6,900 on FanDuel, $7,600 on DraftKings)
Until last night’s surprising loss in Orlando, the Timberwolves had been the hottest team in the NBA since the All-Star Break despite Edwards missing four recent games with knee soreness. He’s now returned for two straight games, averaging nearly 30 minutes though not quite returning to his previous DFS ratios – yet. His teammates KAT and D’Angelo Russell have become a bit overpriced IMO (sorry for all the initials being used here) because of Ant Man’s recent absences. Conversely, Edwards’ price has gone down to the point where he might even be a bit of a steal – especially on FanDuel where he will barely cost you above league average salary. Provided there are no concerns for his knee playing in a back-to-back, I’m buying in a lot on FD.
JOSH RICHARDSON, SF/SG, San Antonio ($3,600 on DraftKings, $3,700 on FanDuel)
He’s no one’s idea of a lineup stalwart, but circumstances tonight could make him a valuable cheaper play. His ownership doesn’t look to be too high today thus far due to lineup uncertainty in San Antonio, but he did play 34 minutes last night vs. Utah and got over 24 DFS points. Tonight, he has a much easier opponent in the visiting Pacers and Josh Primo, Doug McDermott, Keita Bates-Diop and Davontae Cacok are all questionable again. None of those guys are particularly interesting, except for when they’re all potentially absent. Richardson’s price and position flexibility make him almost risk-free on both formats today and with the potential for a decent ceiling, too.
JAVONTE GREEN, SF, Chicago ($3,400 on DraftKings, $3,800 on FanDuel)
Another player whose price tag makes him almost risk-free but whose ceiling may get higher as injury updates happen throughout the day. As of this morning, the Bulls have listed Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine, Ayo Dosunmu and Alex Caruso as questionable while Lonzo Ball remains out for sure. If a few of those players remain out of the lineup as well tonight, Green looks poised to pounce on their minutes at a really inexpensive price. Two games ago he was forced into a higher workload and responded with 5 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 steals against a really good Philly team. Not numbers that will blow anyone away, but if he does something similar to that again against the struggling Cavs tonight at that price, you’re happy – aren’t you?
KEVON LOONEY, C/PF, Golden State ($4,400 on DraftKings, $4,900 on FanDuel)
For me Looney is one of the most underpriced and underappreciated players in today’s slate of games, given his recent production. In his last three games, he’s averaged over 25 minutes and returned more than 1.2 DFS points per minute despite two of those games being against Nikola Jokic. Tonight, he’ll see a lot of Giannis, but Warriors Head Coach Steve Kerr will want his size and strength on the floor a lot for that exact reason, meaning his minutes might edge somewhere close to 30. If he sustains anywhere close to his recent PPM ratios, his price on both formats is eminently manageable and a good value. He’s only a Center on DK, so you may have to make him a cheap Utility guy there but his PF eligibility on FD – where you need two of them every night really helps you create lineup balance.