SNEAKY NBA DFS PICKS FOR MARCH 11
Today’s sneakiness is very lineup dependent. A few of these recommendations will require you to keep updated on injury designations right up until games begin at 7pm. Today could be the perfect day to create a profile on Twitter. (It’s a cesspool of human garbage and a shouting silo for stupid people, but on the plus side – DFS updates and Russian bots!!)
ZIAIRE WILLIAMS, SF/SG, Memphis ($3,100 on DraftKings, $4,100 on FanDuel)
Such a distinct price tag variance on a player so cheap is rare. FD seems more aware of what Williams did in his last game than DK – or they believe it is more repeatable, anyway. In case you missed it, Williams recorded 16 points, 6 rebounds and an assist with just one turnover in 22 minutes of action on Tuesday vs New Orleans. He started the game again, too, which he’s been doing a bit since Dillon Brooks’ injury. Most nights he hasn’t been the reliable point-per-minute guy he was on Tuesday, but facing a Knicks team that’s been pretty soft on wing players like him in a home game where he has double position availability (DK only) and practically the minimum price tag? On DraftKings he’s a guy I’m looking at for sure. Brooks is getting closer to returning, but he ain’t there yet.
JADEN MCDANIELS, SF/PF, Minnesota ($5,000 on DraftKings, $4,700 on FanDuel)
This is a pick I’m making before noon with the notion that I will check back at 6:30 before I lock him in. On Wednesday against Oklahoma City, McDaniels, a former late first round pick of the Lakers in 2020, was given some rope with Anthony Edwards still struggling with knee issues and Jarred Vanderbilt missing time with a quad injury. He acquitted himself well in a blowout win, scoring 12 points to go along with 6 rebounds, 2 assists and a steal in 25 minutes of action. His roster worthiness is predicated on either/both of Vanderbilt and Edwards’ Questionable statuses against Orlando tonight. If either of them aren’t playing, he’s a good play against a Magic team that has defended players like him poorly all season long.
TORREY CRAIG, PF/C, Phoenix ($3,400 on DraftKings, $3,600 on FanDuel)
This will be the Suns’ third game in four nights and their fourth in 6 nights as they return from a road trip that took them through Milwaukee, Orlando and Miami. They’ll be home tonight against a Toronto team that has not played well lately and is missing their best defender in OG Anunoby. Unlike others today, Craig is not on this list because of recent performances – he’s only here because Cam Johnson is out again for Phoenix tonight and he’s going to see 18-20 minutes of floor time for a very low price. If you stretch to get to Lebron or Luka tonight and you need to fill other spots cheaply, he’s due for a better game and is a really weird position chameleon – he’s a PF/C on DraftKings but only a SG only on FanDuel. Go figure. So really I’m singling him out today for that quirk as much as anything else. “Torrey Craig – not very good, but cheap and you can play him almost anywhere!!” Hard to resist, isn’t it?
DONOVAN MITCHELL, SG, Utah, ($8,600 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel)
If you’re going to have to hold your nose and roster a player like the aforementioned Craig, at least you know that your reward is that it allows you to also roster one of DFS basketball’s least-heralded stars. On a night with no Harden, Giannis or Embiid on the schedule, maybe look to the Spider for an upside play without crippling expense attached to him. Key factor: tonight Bojan Bogdonavic is sitting out for Utah (he’s their third-highest usage guy), meaning that Mitchell’s 1.28 DFS points-per-minute average will see an increase. They’re facing a fast-paced Spurs team that also doesn’t defend particularly well and his team is projected to score 119 points tonight. His production potential is undervalued on both platforms today and won’t cripple you if you want to roster other sexy players.
DEVONTE GRAHAM, PG/SG, New Orleans ($4,300 on both FanDuel and DraftKings)
Tonight the Pelicans face the Hornets – an advantageous offensive matchup no matter where or when it happens. In addition, New Orleans will also be playing the Hornets without two of their highest-usage players. Both Brandon Ingram (hamstring) and C.J. McCollum (Covid protocols) will be out of action tonight in the Big Easy and Graham is an excellent possibility to fill in some of the gaping rotation holes their absences will create. Without those two on the floor, Graham’s usage rates become very useful and he’s nearly a point-per-minute DFS player in those situations. He’s likely to get close to 30 minutes of playing time tonight and his price on both formats feels low given the circumstances.