SNEAKY NBA DFS PICKS FOR FEBRUARY 7
Well yesterday was a weird one. If you predicted that Blake Griffin would have five three-pointers in the first half of yesterday afternoon’s game in Denver or if you had Jaxon Hayes going off for 21 points, 7 rebounds and 2 steals with a +14 in just 28 minutes then you probably had a really good day betting. Some (I daresay most) of us did not have those players selected yesterday. I’m going to chalk it up to it being the first Sunday in a long time without any NFL action – NO, the Pro Bowl certainly does NOT count – and I just wasn’t feeling quite myself. Nevertheless, like a goldfish, we have short memories here at Sneaky’s, and we quickly shift our focus to today…
PASCAL SIAKAM, PF, Toronto ($9,200 on DraftKings)
Not playing around today – starting off with a big name. Although he wasn’t selected to this year’s NBA All-Star Game, a cursory glance at his numbers indicates he did deserve serious consideration and Siakam seems to be taking his disappointment out on opposing teams lately. In his last five games he has averaged over 52 DFS points and averaged 42 minutes per game. In that time his DraftKings salary has somehow even gone down a tiny bit. The Raptors play a very tight rotation and will have had two full days of rest, so he’ll be ready to log major minutes again and they’re facing a Charlotte team tonight that loves to play with pace as long as that pace doesn’t mean playing too much defense. Toronto is really playing well right now and a lot of that has to do with Siakam’s play. Ride the wave, baby. Ride the wave.
BAM ADEBAYO, C, Miami ($9,000 on DraftKings)
Two really subtle picks to start the day, huh? I swear I’m not just picking big names here – this is a fantastic matchup for Bam Bam. The Wizards are perhaps the worst team in the NBA at defending opposing centers and tonight they’re missing their starter at the 5, Daniel Gafford. The fact that an NBA team is lamenting losing Daniel Gafford as their starting center should tell you all you need to know about the state the Wiz are in. Just look at what Phoenix’s DeAndre Ayton did against their big guys on Saturday in just 24 minutes. Washington has lost 7 of their last 8 and allowed 112 points or more in 5 of 6 games at one point in that streak. Bam only played 28 minutes on Saturday during Miami’s comfortable victory over Charlotte, so he should be at full strength tonight. Even with limited minutes Saturday and a bad shooting night (7-for-21 from the floor), he still reached 49.5 DFS points. It’s unlikely he fares worse tonight. Very unlikely.
DUNCAN ROBINSON, SG, Miami ($3,600 on DraftKings)
If there’s any team you might want to consider a matchup stack for tonight, it’s the Heat. The only problem with loading up on Miami players is that several of them (Jimmy Butler, Max Strus, Caleb Martin and Tyler Herro) are questionable for tonight’s game in D.C. One player not mentioned on the Injured List at all is Robinson, who has been consistently in Head Coach Erik Spoelstra’s lineup despite some struggles shooting lately. He did get hot against San Antonio on Thursday, making 4 three-pointers and notching a few checks in other categories as well. Check the updates before you confirm, but pairing him with Adebayo tonight balances out to about an average player’s salary – and there’s few better teams to bet against for a ‘get well’ game than Washington.
DARIUS BAZLEY, PF, Oklahoma City ($5,400 on DraftKings)
Starting power forward Lugentz Dort broke his nose last week in a game vs. Portland, causing him to miss Saturday’s game against Sacramento. If he’s out again tonight, Bazley becomes a very strong player. Golden State comes to OKC tonight and while they do rank among the NBA’s elite defensive teams, they haven’t been particularly tough on opposing power forwards. Dort has been fantastic lately, but Bazley is averaging 30 DFS points per game over his last five games. Not too shabby for a salary well under the average, even if Dort does play with a face shield on tonight. (Bazley’s teammate Mamadi Diakite is also a sneaky, cheap play at center tonight for $3,700. He’s started each of the Thunder’s last three games.)
ALEC BURKS, PG, New York ($4,800 on DraftKings)
The Knicks’ point guard situation is a mess, so betting on production and minutes from anyone at that spot is difficult right now. Head Coach Tom Thibodeau can’t seem to decide who he wants to play serious minutes – although to be fair to Thibs, no one has exactly run away with the job since Derrick Rose went down with an injury. In the Knicks’ last game vs. the Lakers on Saturday night Burks was one of their better players, coming off the bench for 12 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, a block and a steal. The Jazz are still missing Rudy Gobert tonight, so Burks’ slashing style will have more room to move and drive, which could make him more useful and valuable tonight.