SNEAKY NBA DFS PICKS FOR APRIL 1
I hate nights like last night. I didn’t do badly – most of my picks went pretty well – just not well enough to put me in the money. I was kind of like the Trail Blazers of recent vintage – not really in the race to win it all, but not bad enough to get a good draft pick the next year. Just kind of stuck in the morass in the middle. I know there aren’t any draft pick rewards the next day if you have a bad night in DFS, but I’d kinda rather blow up spectacularly and pick a terrible team than just end up being…medium. Well, having told you that – why wouldn’t you want to listen to who I think will be a great pick today? Huh?
FRED VANVLEET, PG, Toronto ($7,300 on FanDuel, $8,400 on DraftKings)
This is an odd one – so ripe with value potential and minimal ownership (he’s only looking to be owned in less than 10% of tournaments) that I debated even sharing it. The Raptors are playing extremely well right now, winning 10 of their last 12 and thrusting themselves into the East’s Top Six and tonight they face Orlando, arguably the worst defensive team in the NBA who will be without Jalen Suggs and possibly Wendell Carter Jr. FVV struggled with a knee injury the last few weeks but he logged 72 minutes in his last two games where he also averaged a DFS point per game against much better teams in Boston and Minnesota. Toronto will have everyone available tonight and I’d look for them to have a big night against a Magic team that’s clearly laying up for a draft pick at this point. Freddie’s price on FanDuel is pretty irresistible to me. There are a lot of cheap PGs on FD today but he’s the best price of them.
JALEN BROWN, SF/SG, Boston ($8,000 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel)
I love getting Brown at these prices today – they both seem like mistakes, considering the titanic mismatch they are facing today against the Pacers. Indiana has almost everyone on their roster listed as Questionable tonight and are a remarkably substandard NBA team at this point. Calling them an ‘opponent’ for the Celtics is being very generous. They give up a lot of DFS points quickly and Brown has been red hot lately. As a result he’s drawing a lot of ownership today, but I still don’t mind that at this price. He’s averaged more than 46 DFS points in the last three and those were against Utah, Miami and Minnesota. Tonight he should feast and he’s considerably cheaper than his partner in crime Jason Tatum, so I’m buying him a lot.
JEREMY LAMB, SF/SG, Sacramento ($3,500 on DraftKings and FanDuel)
This is a weird day. Even with 10 games on the NBA schedule, I’m still finding myself looking at a lot of Sacramento Kings players as solid plays. I know it’s April Fool’s Day, but I’m not joshing around. I hate that shit, anyway. The fact is that the Kings are favorites on the road tonight in Houston, facing the worst defensive team in the league without their two best players Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox. In Wednesday night’s game (also at Houston, weirdly), Lamb played 24 minutes at just under a point-per-minute level. If he gets there again, he’s a good bargain on both platforms. There’s no guarantee he does get those minutes again, but Sacramento doesn’t have a lot of better options and he’s available in two spots on FanDuel, too.
ALPEREN SENGUN, PF/C, Houston ($5,700 on FanDuel, $6,900 on DraftKings)
He’s listed as questionable for tonight’s matchup vs. Sacramento, so check updates as the day evolves, but the Kings present a tasty matchup any night, and are even more appealing as an opponent when they’re missing Sabonis and Fox. I can’t imagine paying money to watch this game tonight – I think I’d even resent the gas money I used to get to watch this horror show. It doesn’t take Nostradamus to know where Sengun is most valuable – FD has him shockingly undervalued, given his recent work. If Sengun is out, have a look at his teammate Kevin Porter Jr, who went absolutely nuts vs. Sac-Town two nights ago and would inherit a lot of Sengun’s usage if he doesn’t play.
KYLE ANDERSON, SF/PF, Memphis ($4,100 on DraftKings, $4,200 on FanDuel)
The Grizzlies are without Ja Morant again tonight but have placed the ominous Doubtful tag on Desmond Bane, Steven Adams, Tyus Jones and Jaren Jackson Jr. This feels like a game where Memphis is strategically resting a lot of starters in a game vs. the team they’re hoping to face in the West Finals in about 6 weeks, the logic being that Phoenix won’t get a good look at their squad until then. I’m sure those folks in Memphis who’ve paid good money to see a matchup of the West’s top two seeds will be pissed, but I doubt Kyle Anderson will be. If all of those players are indeed out tonight, he’ll likely see close to 30 minutes and get plenty of distribution/ball-handling responsibilities too. He’ll have teammates who will also be cheap and see decent minutes, but their PPM scores are weak. Anderson has a history of being a productive player (in defensive categories, too) so I’m going with him as my favorite Grizzly tonight.