UFC 262 Adesanya V Vettori

SGG UFC 263, June 11

The UFC will shift from its weekly attraction at the Apex in Las Vegas to Glendale, AZ this weekend for UFC 263. Headlining the card will be a Middleweight championship fight between the champion, Israel Adesanya (20-1) and the #3 ranked challenger, Marvin Vettori (17-4-1) — a rematch of their 2018 bout that ended in a split decision win for Adesanya. 

After Israel Adesanya “dared to be great” in his last fight, where he chose to fight for the Light Heavyweight championship against Jan Blachowicz, Israel ultimately decided to go back to where he is comfortable in the Middleweight division. Adesanya lost via Unanimous decision to Blachowicz as the weight difference seemed to be too much for Israel. 

SGG Sportsbook Banner

On Saturday, June 12, Marvin Vettori will get his second crack at Israel Adesanya. Coincidentally, the fight will take place in the same arena where the first matchup occurred. Since Vettori’s loss on that night, he has rattled off five straight wins and has secured his spot as one of the top contenders in the Middleweight division. 

This is another great matchup for the UFC and should be a fun one for gamblers. When betting on a rematch, It’s always wise to take a look at the first fight between the two fighters. Adesanya had a slight striking advantage and seemed to be the more skilled striker but Vettori opened many eyes by exposing Israel’s takedown defense. Marvin finished with two official takedowns and I think that is an important statistic to take away from this fight. Adesanya comes in as a -275 favorite and Vettori a +215 underdog. 

Analysis & Picks 

In my opinion, the odds are a little too lopsided in favor of Adesanya in this one. Israel has dominated this division from top to bottom but his 1st fight with Vettori was a lot closer than any of his other middleweight fights. Until Adesanya shows that his takedown defense has improved, there is no reason that Vettori will not expose that part of his game. Conditioning could play a factor in this fight as I believe both fighters are similar in the striking category so the question will be how much of the fight will be on the ground. If Vettori can have his way on the ground, then I believe Vettori will win this fight via decision. If Adesanya doesn’t allow him to take him down I think that Israel has more tools to knock out Vettori and that’s how I see Adesanya winning. I’ll take my chances with the favorite in this one simply because he’s never given anyone a reason to bet against him. 
Israel Adesanya -275
O/U 4.5 Rds – Over (-148)

In the co-main event, another rematch will take place as Deiveson Figueiredo (20-1-1) will defend his belt against Brandon Moreno (18-5-2). In what many saw as a surprising performance, Brandon Moreno showed he can hang with the best of them. In the first fight, Moreno and Figueiredo fought at an incredible pace, both connecting on many clean punches but neither fighter would go down. In a five round championship fight, this bout was scored a majority draw as even the judges couldn’t pick a winner. Figueiredo was a major favorite in the first bout at -320 as Moreno was a big underdog at +260. In the rematch, Deiveson Figueiredo still comes in as a pretty big favorite at -230 and Moreno at +185. This should be another very entertaining fight but if the fight is fought at the pace of the first one I just can’t see this going the distance. Figueiredo has never really had this type of competition at his weight class as he has dominated the whole division. I think Moreno and his team found some weaknesses that they can exploit in Figueiredo’s game. I like Moreno to get the job done this time around and believe there will be a new champion in the flyweight division. 

Brandon Moreno +185
O/U 4.5 Rds – Under (-105) 

Fan Favorite, Nathan Diaz (21-12) will make his return to the octagon Saturday night after more than a two year hiatus. He will be fighting a top ranked fighter in Leon Edwards (18-3) in a five round welterweight fight. Diaz is coming off his loss to Jorge Masvidal in the “BMF” title fight. Whenever Diaz fights, everyone tunes in as he is one of the few stars in the sport. Edwards is just reaching his prime and is looking for his title shot. This is another lopsided fight in terms of the betting odds. Nathan Diaz comes in as a +400 underdog and Edwards a -560 favorite. Diaz is such an entertaining fighter but I don’t think he can win this one. Edwards is too skilled and hungry to become the champion. I think this ends in a decision as Diaz is as tough as they come and I can’t envision a KO.

Leon Edwards -560
O/U 4.5 Rds – Over (-118)

Latest Team / Player News