SGG Picks of the Day, Sept. 30
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Somehow, it is week four in the NFL already and we’re at the mid-week point where we try to bring you back from a disastrous Monday night or sling shot you into a profitable weekend. Let’s jump right into our Thursday’s top plays.
Joe Mixon Over 20 Rush Attempts
So hear me out, we all know Jacksonville is bad, no one expected any difference, but teams are attempting the second most rushing attempts on this Jaguars team with 33. Game script will be on the table in a lot of games with the Jags because they will be trailing often, but so far it really has not been that big of a factor. In Week one it played a role, but then in week two they hung in there against a Broncos team followed by week three where they actually led at the half. Now looking at the Bengals offense, Joe Mixon is the every down back there; he can do it all and they have been feeding him 70 rush attempts through the first three weeks. This volume makes sense, as Burrow is coming off a bad knee injury and the Bengals have one of the worst offensive lines in football. So how do you avoid your QB turning into Andrew Luck? You run the ball and you run it a lot. Expect no different here as Mixon favors heavily into the Bengals game plan and garbage time could be another factor to pad his touches.
Jacksonville 1H Team Total under 8.5
A few things here. Lawrence doesn’t have much offensive talent around him. I’m convinced Urban Meyer hates to run the ball, so that is leading to a ton of three and outs for the Jags. Lastly, the Bengals are likely to run the ball a ton and will eat a lot of clock and control the Time of Possession. The Bengals defense is vastly underrated, so far Cincinnati has only allowed one first half touchdown and as for Jacksonville, they have not gone over this posted total except last week when Arizona tried to kick the ball to the moon, and they got lucky with a 109 yard return for a TD. Look for the Jags possessions to be limited and scoring to be minimal.
Ja’Marr Chase over 66.5 receiving yards:
Burrow told Cincinnati that he wanted this guy with their first-round pick and he got him. Through three games we can see why Chase has four TD’s and has caught touchdowns in every game this season. He has led the Bengals in receiving yards two out of three weeks. The Jags just traded away their top corner, former first round pick CJ Henderson, so it could be open season for the Burrow and Chase connection. Chase appears to be Burrow’s option in the deep threat and by his TD numbers you can tell Burrow looks for Chase often. Take him to go over 66.5 yards.