Tampa Bay Rays' Randy Arozarena
Tampa Bay Rays' Randy Arozarena (56) slides past Boston Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez, left, as he steals home during the seventh inning of Game 1 of a baseball American League Division Series, Thursday, Oct. 7, 2021, in St. Petersburg, Fla. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)

SGG Picks of the Day, Oct. 8

Nathan Hursh

It’s October baby! Playoff baseball is here. Here are our top picks for Friday.

Braves over Brewers (+135 DK)
Will Brewers’ starter Corbin Burnes win the Cy Young award this season? Probably. That said, this afternoon will be his first ever postseason start. Burnes has been solid as a postseason reliever in the past but starting is a whole different animal. On the other side, Charlie Morton gets the start for Atlanta. Morton has been solid as a postseason starter over the course of his career. Over 61.1 innings pitched, he has a 3.38 ERA. In the 2020 postseason specifically, Morton allowed just six earned runs over 20 innings pitched. Five of those came in one game. When Morton is on, he is ON. I expect him to shove in this game in a Braves win. Taking the under seven would also not be a terrible bet.

Red Sox over Rays (+115 DK)
As someone who hates the Red Sox and Boston sports in general, this pick hurts my feelings. That said, we have Chris Sale, a pitcher with a career 46.5 bWAR, against Shane Baz, a pitcher who made his major league debut a few weeks ago. Over his postseason career, Sale has not been great. He has a 5.76 ERA over 25 career postseason innings. Baz on the other hand has been phenomenal over his first three career starts, tossing 13 innings of three-run ball. In this game though, I will take the old vet over the young rookie. I get that the Rays as an organization are a machine that pumps out constant talent. And yes, if Baz struggles, he will have a quick hook and the Rays’ excellent bullpen will take over. I will say too, I like the Rays to win in four games. Not tonight though. Boston will take care of business.

Dodgers over Giants (-120)
The Dodgers survived the Wild Card Game earlier this week against the Cardinals. Now the postseason can really begin for them. In tonight’s matchup, we have Walker Buehler against Logan Webb. Both of these pitchers have been solid this season. Against the Giants this season, Buehler has been dominant. Over 37 innings pitched, he has allowed just nine earned runs (2.19 ERA). Webb too has been solid against the Dodgers this season. Over 16 innings pitched against the Dodgers this season, he’s allowed just four earned runs (2.25 ERA). The Giants have been unreal this season. In my opinion though, their 107 wins seem a lot more flukey than the Dodgers’ 106 wins. LA takes care of business tonight.

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