Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) scrambles during the first half of an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, Nov. 7, 2021, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)


Patrick Werkmeister

Although that marks back-to-back 0-3 performances in these primetime slots, these Thursday night picks will bounce back beautifully. For this AFC matchup, head coach John Harbaugh and the Baltimore Ravens travel to Miami to face off against coach Brian Flores and the Dolphins. In Week 9, Miami handled the Texans while the Ravens narrowly escaped with a victory in overtime. With one team at the top of the conference and the other at the bottom, one would think this pick is a no brainer. However, I won’t be going with the square pick as we look to go perfect in this one. With this in mind, here is what I like for this mid-week NFL action.

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Dolphins (+7.5)
The opening line for this game had Baltimore as six and a half-point road favorite, but they are currently favored by seven and a half-points. While the Ravens are 9-0 ATS in their previous nine meetings with Miami, they are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall. Additionally, in Baltimore’s last four games as a road favorite by more than a touchdown, they have only covered the spread once. Although the Dolphins are a shoddy 1-4-1 ATS in their last six overall, miraculously they are 10-4 ATS in their past 14 games played at home. The Fins will have a game-time decision to make regarding their banged up starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. However, now that they have a solid win vs Houston, that should restore some confidence in Brian Flores’ team. In Week 8, they pushed the AFC top dog Buffalo Bills to the limit right until they pulled away in the 4th quarter. They should be able to keep up with a Ravens team that has been inconsistent lately and tends to play down to their competition. With three of Baltimore’s six wins coming by a field goal or less, and another six-point win in overtime, Miami has a great matchup to keep this one within reach. Take the Dolphins to keep this competitive at home plus the points.

Lamar Jackson Over 64.5 Rushing Yards
After running for 120 yards on the ground in the Ravens comeback victory, Lamar Jackson once again displayed he is one of the best running backs in the NFL. This past Sunday, he passed Michael Vick for most 100+ yard rushing games by a quarterback, making him the all-time leader in that category. Jackson has been the bell cow for Baltimore’s rushing attack with the absence of numerous Ravens running backs. With a relatively weak front seven for Miami, Lamar should get his normal numbers on the ground. In Week 9, he ran the ball 21 times and should be expected to have a somewhat similar workload with no new additions in the backfield this week. While his low for carries this season is seven rushes, he is absolutely electrifying with his legs and can take off on any given play. Take Lamar Jackson to run by this total rushing yardage prop with ease.

Mark Andrews Any Time TD (+145)
With QB Lamar Jackson rapidly improving on his ability to throw the football, Mark Andrews has had quite a fruitful season so far. Although he was unable to score in last week’s performance, he still put-up solid numbers and is the top red zone passing threat for the Ravens. In addition, he and receiver Hollywood Brown see the vast majority of passes where Andrews sits eight targets behind Brown. The Dolphins currently sit in the bottom third in pass defense in the NFL, so this puts him in a great spot to at least be productive. He has shown a consistent ability to get open and is always hungry for the end zone, where in 2020 he crossed the plane seven times. They’re not an especially stout unit, so expect Andrews to get his normal numbers and have success. Take him to score in what should be a relatively high-scoring contest.

Same Game Parlay:
Mark Andrews Anytime TD Scorer, Mike Gesicki Anytime TD Scorer, Myles Gaskin Over 42.5 Rush Yds, Lamar Jackson Over 64.5 Rush Yds, Mark Andrews Over 50.5 Rec Yds, Marquise Brown Over 60.5 Rec Yds, Durham Smythe Over 10.5 Rec Yds, Ravens to win by 1-13 Pts and Over 47.5 Total Points.

SGP Odds +37606

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