Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant
Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant (12) brings the ball up court in the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Denver Nuggets Monday, Nov. 1, 2021, in Memphis, Tenn. (AP Photo/Brandon Dill)


Kyle Barrette

It was an easy cover last night as the game went over the number by 23 points. We’re going right back to the well with this game. In a night with a short slate, we have almost an identical situation to what we had in yesterday’s win. The books continue to undervalue the recent play of the Pistons. Can it continue here? Let’s break it down and find out.

They did it again, not a win, but a third straight game in which they scored over 110 points. Casey has his team playing better to start off the New Year, and it doesn’t help that the games have been against average to below-average defenses. That’s what they get here again, as the Grizzlies come into this game ranked 18th in points allowed per game at 108. The next thing I like about this number is that it’s given the Pistons’ track record and, although it’s a short trip, they are on a back-to-back with travel involved for this game, so there is room for regression on their part. In other words, Detroit has cleared 110 points in three of their last four games, so theoretically they only need to get to the century mark here for this one to go over, which means they have around 11 points less they can score, and this game will still likely go over.

What’s not to like about this Grizzly team? The Morant brothers are playing some of their best basketball, and this team should be taken seriously down the stretch. We mentioned their defense is a little below average, but their offense is one of the best in the league as they rank fifth in scoring at 111 per game. The Grizzlies fit the mold of the last three teams the Pistons have played, all of which have gone over this number. Memphis has scored over 110 points in five of their last six games, and that was against defenses that were a good bit better than this Pistons squad. The Grizzlies have a similar offense to Charlotte and should be able to produce a similar score here.

The Grizzlies vs. Pistons pick: Over 217.5
It’s the same set up again, but the Grizzlies have a better defense, so dropping the line at 8.5 points is a generous offer by the books. Both teams are right around the top 10 in pace, both are below average defenses, and both have been lighting up the scoring column lately. Choose the over 217.5.

Same Game Parlay
Over 218 Pts, Ja Morant First Basket, Grizzlies to win by 1-10 Pts and Grizzlies Team Total Over 115.5 Pts.

SGP Odds +4544

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