San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich
San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich, right, talks to guard Dejounte Murray during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Washington Wizards, Monday, Nov. 29, 2021, in San Antonio. (AP Photo/Darren Abate)


Kyle Barrette

With a short NBA slate tonight, we head to the Western Conference where both of these teams try and get it going. The Spurs have lost two in a row and the Nuggets needed overtime to take down the Pelicans last night. So, who has the edge in this one? Let’s break down the matchup and find out.

Denver’s offense has struggled this season and looks nothing like last year’s team. Coming into this game, they were ranked 25th at 104 points a game. Denver is still able to rank third in the league in defense, giving up an average of 104 points per game. Let’s peel back the Denver defense for a quick second, though. The main force driving that number when they play at home. When the Nuggets are at home, they give up an average of 99 points. On the road, like they are here in this matchup, they allow 109 points, which ties them for the largest home and road split difference in the league. This is going to be a long night for the Nuggets on the back end of a back-to-back on the road against a team that has rest and plays at a quick pace.

The Spurs might be a solid veteran or two away from becoming a contending team. They have a fair amount of young talent that could push struggling teams like the Nuggets out of the playoffs. Until that happens, let’s look at the team they have. This team is also very up and down. This is the same team that beat the Blazers and Warriors on the road. That’s two teams that are a combined 24-6 at home, and then they come back and get stomped by the Knicks and lose by 12 at home. The best thing this team has going for them is that they are fearless and can get to the basket and score. The Spurs are basically tied for the top spot in the league for points in the paint per game with 54. This plays right into the Spurs’ hands as the Nuggets are ranked 27th in the league in opponents’ points allowed at 48. 

Spurs vs Nuggets the Pick: Over 214 Points
The Nuggets are coming off an extended game on a travel night in the second half of a back-to-back, which will lead to tired legs, making it so much more difficult to try to stop this Spurs team inside. The numbers show this is a picture-perfect set up for the Spurs to score easy buckets all night long. The Spurs’ defense is pretty poor. They rank near the bottom, at 19th, allowing 108 a game. Look for the game to be pretty close the whole way with plenty of scoring. Take the over at 214.

Same Game Parlay
Over 215.5 Pts, Dejounte Murray First Basket, Dejounte Murray Over 19.5 Pts, Spurs Team Total Over 108.5 Pts and Spurs to win by 1-10 Pts.

SGP Odds +5036

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