Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) catches a touchdown pass as Green Bay Packers safety Darnell Savage (26) defends during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 7, 2021, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)


Patrick Werkmeister

In this primetime AFC Wild Card matchup, Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers look to steal one on the road in Kansas City against Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs. Last week, Pittsburgh won in an OT thriller vs the Ravens, whereas the Chiefs squeaked by the Broncos, 28-24. With this being the second meeting between these teams this year, Kansas City obliterated Pittsburgh in the first match, so expect the Steelers to be looking for revenge. It will be a winter wonderland at Arrowhead Stadium with cold temps and snow in the forecast mix. With this in mind, here is what I love in this Wild Card matchup.

Steelers (+12.5)
The Steelers opened this game as thirteen and a half-point road underdogs, but they are now listed as twelve and a half-point underdogs. Although the Chiefs are an impressive 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, Pittsburgh is a solid 4-2 ATS in their last six. Additionally, under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 35-14-1 ATS in their last 50 games as road underdogs. The Chiefs on the other hand come into this game after barely defeating the Denver Broncos and losing to the Cincinnati Bengals the week before. In addition, Kansas City was unable to rest their players last week. Pittsburgh needs a lot to go in their favor, but if they can win in the turnover margin category, they are a lock to cover this widespread margin. Although this Chiefs defensive unit has been overachieved as a group this year, they have had some inconsistencies where they have been scorched on that side of the ball. If the Steelers can just somewhat limit the run and make Pat Mahomes uncomfortable, they have a very favorable chance of covering in this Wild Card game. Take the Steelers plus the points where they are a hungry dog.

Draft Kings Promotion

Najee Harris Over 61.5 Rushing Yards
Following a 1,200-yard season on the ground, Najee Harris’s elite running abilities have allowed him to have major success on the ground throughout the season, and he’ll look to carry that into this one. Najee has been an absolute stud for the Steelers where he ranked fourth in the league in rushing to go along with 8 total TDs. Additionally, he has run the ball at least 12 times in each game this season, so he has been very involved in their game plan this year. Although he comes into this game with pain in his elbow, Najee will not be stopped by this subpar Kansas City defense. With aging QB Ben Roethlisberger no longer in his prime, Pittsburgh will be sure to keep him very involved in the offense. With his efficient dual-threat ability, he should be able to easily hit this mark as he has done it in 9 starts. Take Najee Harris to plow through the Chiefs defense and run past this total rushing yardage prop.

Travis Kelce Any Time TD (-130)
Following another outstanding regular season, Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce should be a big part of the passing attack. Although he is now 32 years old, Travis has just recorded his sixth straight 1,000-yard season for receiving, which is the most among any tight end in history. On the year, he had 92 receptions and 9 touchdowns. Additionally, he has nearly 134 targets in a pass-heavy system, so he has been a huge part of their offense. Kelce is a great red zone threat and with his touchdown prop looking this juicy, it must be taken advantage of. With so many weapons on the Chiefs offense, all focus will be on players like Tyreek Hill or Darrel Williams, leaving Travis wide open. While the Steelers have a formidable pass defense, there’s not much that can be done to limit his production. He has had some monstrous outings this year where he’s had three multi-td games and four 100-yard outings. With how sure handed he is, he’ll make teams pay that give him any space at all. Expect Travis Kelce to have a productive night overall and take him to score one for the Chiefs. 

Same Game Parlay:

Travis Kelce Anytime TD Scorer, Najee Harris Over 63.5 Rush Yds, Diontae Johnson Over 60.5 Rec Yds, Pat Freiermuth Over 31.5 Rec Yds, Byron Pringle Over 29.5 Rec Yds and Steelers +12.5.

SGP Odds +3867

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