Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) scrambles past Buffalo Bills defensive end Mario Addison (97) during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 10, 2021, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)


Patrick Werkmeister

In this AFC matchup, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills travel to Arrowhead Stadium where they take on Pat Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Last week, the Chiefs were able to thrash the Pittsburgh Steelers, 42-21, and the Bills also demolished their opponent, the New England Patriots, 47-17. With Kansas City coming off a strong win and playing in front of their home crowd again, Buffalo will have to muster up the strength to overcome the Chiefs electric offense in a harsh environment. With this in mind, here is what I love in this postseason action.

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Chiefs (-1.5)
The Chiefs opened this game as two point home favorites and they are currently favored by just one and a half-points. While Buffalo is an impressive 3-1 ATS and SU in their last four road games, the Chiefs are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games played at home. Additionally, Kansas City averages over four touchdowns scored per game at home. Although the Bills pulled off an impressive victory against their divisional rival Patriots last week, they will be facing a completely different beast in Pat Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and company. QB Josh Allen has been able to will his squad to multiple victories; however, while on the road against top 15 offenses (Chiefs, Titans, Buccaneers, Patriots), the Bills have allowed an average of 27 points per game. If Mahomes and the offense can mitigate turnovers by taking extra care of the football, they should easily cover this margin vs this average Buffalo defense. While this Bills defensive unit has been subpar in the ground game, where they’re letting up almost 5 rushing yards per attempt, the Chiefs defense has been relentless in the last months whether it’s against the pass or the run. Take Kansas City minus the points, where Andy Reid will out scheme Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense.

Pat Mahomes Over 24.5 Rushing Yards
After running for nearly 30 yards vs the Steelers in their Wild Card match, Pat Mahomes ability to extend plays have allowed him to have major success on the ground, and he’ll look to carry that into this critical game. Additionally, he only had 3 carries, so he won’t need many attempts to pass up this amount of yards. Mahomes has been an absolute stud for the Chiefs even with his feet where he had nearly 400 yards rushing and averaged nearly six yards a carry. Additionally, he has ran the ball at least three times in each game in the regular season, so he has made sure to keep defenses guessing at what he’ll do next. Although the Bills hold mediocre numbers against the run this season, Mahomes has proven he can tuck it and run when there is a heavy rush, and tonight he should be facing a lot of pressure against a strong Buffalo pass rush. However, their rush defense has been exposed a few occasions over the year. Pat has the innate ability to take off when he steps outside of the pocket, so expect him to show off his legs at some point. With his underrated dual-threat ability, he should be able to easily hit this mark. Take Pat Mahomes to run by this total rushing yardage prop.

Stefon Diggs Anytime TD (+150)
Following another productive year with the Bills and his QB Josh Allen, Buffalo receiver Stefon Diggs should be a big part of the passing attack. With not nearly as many weapons as Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs, Diggs has been a wonderful centerpiece for this pass-heavy Bills offense. This year, he had a staggering 103 catches on 10 touchdown receptions where he was targeted a jaw-dropping 164 times. Diggs is a great red zone threat and with his touchdown prop looking this juicy, it must be taken advantage of. With the Bills dynamic passing attack, it will be hard to prevent him from being productive in some fashion. Although the Chiefs have a formidable pass defense, it will be difficult to completely subdue an offense of this caliber where they had 34 points in their Week 4 matchup. He has had some monstrous outings this year where he has a touchdown in over half of his starts. With how sure handed he is, he’ll make teams pay that give him any space at all. Expect Stefon Diggs to have an overall solid night and take him to score one for the Bills. 

Same Game Parlay:
Diggs Anytime TD Scorer, Mahomes Over 285.5 Pass

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