Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) passes the ball to running back A.J. Dillon (28) during the second half of an NFL football game against the Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, Nov. 28, 2021, in Green Bay, Wis. (AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski)


Patrick Werkmeister

After an efficient 2-1 performance in Thursday Night Football’s edition of ‘Best Bets’, this special holiday NFL action is a great opportunity to stay hot. In this interconference matchup, Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns travel to Wisconsin where they face off against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Last week, the Packers narrowly defeated the Baltimore Ravens by a score of 31-30 whereas the Browns lost in back breaking fashion to the Raiders, 16-14. With one team already clinching 1st place in their division and the other fighting for their playoff dreams, it will be quite difficult to derail a team that has been playing so well in December. With th`is in mind, here is what I love for this rare NFL contest on Christmas Day.

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Browns (+7.5)
The Browns opened this game as seven-point road underdogs and the current line favors Green Bay by just over a touchdown at seven and a half-points. While Cleveland is a dreadful 1-4 ATS in their past five games, Green Bay is an impressive 11-2 ATS in their last 13 matches. Additionally, the Packers are 16-5 ATS in their past 21 home games. Although this matchup features two teams currently going in opposite directions, the Browns still control their own destiny, and they won’t want to give that power up by losing this one. Additionally, this Green Bay squad has some alarming flaws of their own. Although the Browns have not been as productive on offense with the absence of vital players like Kareem Hunt and a majority of the starting offensive line, they will get some slight relief with plenty of guys returning from COVID or injury. If Cleveland can mitigate turnovers by taking care of the ball, unlike last week, they should be able to at least cover as the hungry underdog. Although this Packers offensive unit is among the most elite in the NFL, they have had some inconsistencies where they lose their rhythm. Take Cleveland plus the points, where they look to stay alive against this Packers team.

Nick Chubb Over 85.5 Rushing Yards
After running for 93 yards and a touchdown on the ground vs the Raiders, Nick Chubb’s elite offensive line has allowed him to have major success on the ground, and he’ll look to carry that into this one. Chubb has been an absolute stud for the Browns where he has seven rushing touchdowns and over 1,000 yards on the ground. Additionally, he has run the ball at least 11 times in each game this season, so he has been very involved in their rushing attack this season. Although Green Bay holds fairly good numbers against the run this season, Chubb has proven he can plow through any defense. With the Browns stacked o-line, Cleveland will be sure to run their offense through Chubb as opposed to the awful play at quarterback by Baker Mayfield. With his efficient dual-threat ability, he should be able to easily hit this mark as he has done it in 7 of his 11 starts. Take Nick Chubb to easily run by this total rushing yardage prop.

AJ Dillon Any Time TD (+135)
With the Packers switching to a committee at running back, rookie AJ Dillon is a great candidate to plow one in for a score. Dillon is a 6-foot 250-pound back who is built for goal line situations and is as reliable as they come down there. Not only is he only in at the goal line, but he has taken a considerable amount of carries away from Aaron Jones. Additionally, the Browns ranks in the bottom third for rushing yards allowed, and they have proved to be a soft rush defense vs anyone they face. This prop has tremendous value given he is so reliable near the end zone. Take him to score one in what should be a high scoring contest.

Same Game Parlay
Browns +7.5, Nick Chubb Anytime TD Scorer, AJ Dillon Anytime TD Scorer, Nick Chubb Over 85.5 Rush Yds, Aaron Jones Over 19.5 Rec Yds and Under 50.5 Pts.

SGP Odds +4945

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