Quarterback (10) Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback (10) Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers turns to hand off against the Dallas Cowboys in an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 19, 2021, in Inglewood, Calif. The Cowboys defeated the Chargers 20-17. (AP Photo/Jeff Lewis)

NFL Best Bets, Sept. 26

Patrick Werkmeister

Now that we have arrived at this beautiful NFL Week 3, it’s time to separate the sharp plays from the square picks in this slate to make some serious guap. Some teams have gained some early hype in their minor success and that sentiment is reflected in some of these lines. This is the point where the 2-0 pretenders fold against their first real test. This week will feature teams being exposed and put back in their place, which I have manifested into these picks. After going 0-3 last Sunday, these picks have been bounced back nicely following a 3-0 showing on MNF and a Thursday night Panthers cover. Here’s what I’m riding with for this NFL Sunday.


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Chargers @ Chiefs (-6.5)
From Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs face off against fellow quarterback Justin Herbert and the LA Chargers. The initial spread listed the Chiefs as seven and a half-point favorites, but they are currently -6.5. Last week in prime time, the Chiefs were surprisingly defeated by the Ravens. They had the game in their hands but then let their foot off the gas, so they’ll be hungry coming into this important divisional game. Likewise, Los Angeles suffered an agonizing three-point loss to the Cowboys. Although Kansas City is an amazing 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games, this Chargers squad is very overvalued with their MVP “hopeful” Justin Herbert, who currently has top 10 odds. Nothing has changed, the Chiefs are still one of the best in the NFL and they’ll look even sharper than they usually do coming off of a loss. Take the Chiefs to cover this spread with ease.

Buccaneers (-1.5) @ Rams
In this NFC matchup, the Los Angeles Rams will be playing at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This line opened up favoring the Bucs by a small one and a half-point margin and has not moved from that spot to this point. With these two juggernaut rosters, this could be the most intriguing matchup of the season. However, I believe the hype behind Matthew Stafford is too great and he will be exposed following a fairly perfect start. So far this season, Tampa’s offense has looked unstoppable in the back-to-back 30-point games they have put up. With Tom Brady’s ‘always can improve’ attitude that has made him so successful, this dynamic Bucs squad is poised for perfection every week. After a close 3-point game versus the Colts in Week 2, this Rams team is a hard sell for me. Take the Bucs to make a statement as to why they’re the defending Super Bowl champs.   

Packers (+3.5) @ 49ers
For this edition of Sunday Night Football, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers travel to San Francisco for a contest with the 49ers. The opening line for this one has San Francisco as three and a half-point home favorites as that margin has remained steady. While the 49ers have not been a reliable home favorite with a 1-6 record ATS in their last 7, Green Bay has had an excellent track record covering, especially in their last 10 ATS where they’re 8-2. On Monday, Aaron Rodgers once again showed the world he is still the MVP quarterback he was last season during his dazzling performance over the Lions. I think their streak is just getting started now that they seemingly figured things out. With all of their offensive weapons led by Rodgers, there’s just no way this complete unit doesn’t produce throughout the year. San Francisco is yet another team that is unproven. With wins over Detroit and Philadelphia, they have yet to be tested, and for them to be favored over an obstacle as big as Green Bay is baffling to this bettor. Take the insurance points Vegas is giving away in what may be a close game but will ultimately be a Packers cover. 

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