NFL Best Bets, Sept. 12
Finally, an entire Sunday to enjoy where there’s nothing to do but sit back and watch a fully loaded NFL slate, while monitoring your fantasy team. It is also time to find a betting rhythm and strategy for this NFL season that leads to fruitful profit margins. While it’s tempting to take some of the props out there, with the vast array of matchups this Sunday, it is best to focus on the outcome of each game. Here is what I absolutely love for this opening weekend of the NFL.
Steelers (+6.5) @ Bills
From Orchard Park, New York, coach Mike Tomlin and his Pittsburgh Steelers will be on the road to play the Buffalo Bills and head coach Sean McDermott. This line opened at Bills -6 and currently has them favored by six and a half-points. In their last five on the road at Buffalo, Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU. These two faced off last year late in the season where the Bills edged out a win that was much closer than the 26-15 final score suggests. By the time these two met, Pittsburgh’s season and momentum was crumbling while the Bills were right in the middle of playing their best football, yet they still managed to force quarterback Josh Allen to struggle in a game that was tight the whole way. They will have their loss to Buffalo last year in the back of their minds coming into this one. Pittsburgh will also be much fresher for this contest and is loaded with talent on both sides with additions of guys like Najee Harris and the return of defensive asset Devin Bush. Although they have only one returning starter on the offensive line, two linemen selections in this year’s draft and other offseason moves are going to help give the Steelers a better offensive line than they had last year. This squad is extremely slept on and underrated so don’t be surprised when they make a statement against a Buffalo team that faced little adversity in their schedule last season. The move is to take the points, but at +235 the Steelers money line is very inviting.
Browns @ Chiefs (-5.5)
For this NFL game of the week, the Cleveland Browns return to Arrowhead Stadium for their divisional playoff round rematch against the Kansas City Chiefs. This line began with the Chiefs as six-point home favorites, but the spread at publication has them at -5.5. In their postseason matchup, Kansas City dominated the first half where the game seemingly looked over, until QB Pat Mahomes went down. Myles Garrett and the Browns defense were able to take advantage and attack backup Chad Henne and an awful Chiefs offensive line that somehow kept it together for the win. However, this year they are absolutely loaded at offensive line with four high-profile offseason signings and two draft picks that will now be one of the best units in the league. This will be just one of the many new challenges Cleveland will see from this Chiefs team they did not see 8 months ago. Although teams coming off of a Super Bowl loss are 5-16 in Week 1 ATS since 2000, it does not defeat the fact that the Chiefs are one of the best offenses in the history of the NFL that is going up against a Browns squad that is highly overrated with the mass amounts of praise they get from the widespread media. I will be riding with the far superior quarterback and offense that will deliver a blowout win.
Bears @ Rams (-7.5)
The last game of the day is in LA where the Rams take on the Chicago Bears. This game was originally set favoring the Rams by seven points and it is now at -7.5. With head coach Matt Nagy deciding to start Andy Dalton in Week 1, the Bear’s nightmare of being one of the worst offenses in the league is upon them. Until they decide to give potential star QB Justin Fields the job, Dalton’s play will suffer greatly behind an offensive line that is plagued with injury. Against a Los Angeles defense that might be best in the league, with sack leader Aaron Donald, don’t be too surprised to see a defensive score in this one by the disruptive Rams defense. Their offense is led by gunslinger Matthew Stafford at QB, who they recently acquired from Detroit, and he is surrounded by all kinds of weapons at receiver who should be able to burn through a weakened Bears defense. The Bears offense, or lack thereof, will be the main headline for this game as the Rams defense looks to put on a spectacle and grab the spotlight. I like the Rams by a bunch with Chicago putting up little to nothing on offense.