Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Alle
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) hands the ball off to running back Devin Singletary (26) during the first half of an NFL football game against the Houston Texans, Sunday, Oct. 3, 2021, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)

NFL Best Bets, Oct. 10

Patrick Werkmeister

Now that these football picks are 13-5 in the last 18, it’s important to choose carefully whether to tail or hedge this edition of ‘Best Bets’. Last week’s betting strategy of using value as the primary factor in these picks worked wonders and will be a key point of emphasis to come. Whether they’re overrated or undervalued, this slate is chalked full of exciting action. All of these plays feature hot teams that are all favored in their matchups. With that in mind, here is what I’m confident in for this Sunday.

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Packers (-3) @ Bengals
From Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers travel to Ohio to face off against Joe Burrow and the Bengals. The opening line for this game favored Green Bay by three and a half-points and they are now favored by just a field goal. Coming in with a minor hot streak, the Packers are 6-2 ATS in their previous 8 matches, whereas the Bengals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 following a win. In last week’s victory, Cincinnati was playing from behind all game vs the Jaguars where they barely pulled off the W. Although they were able to hold off Jacksonville with 24 points in the second half, their performance was unconvincing versus this bottom-tier squad. They may have an attractive 3-1 record, but their success has come against impoverished teams. So far, opponents they have defeated have a combined 2-10 record on the season. On the other hand, after the Packers embarrassing loss in Week 1, Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the team have bounced back quite nicely with 3 straight wins over formidable teams. Take Green Bay to cover the points in this mismatch.

Browns @ Chargers (-2.5)
In this AFC matchup, Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers host Nick Chubb and the Cleveland Browns at SoFi Stadium. This contest opened as a pick’em, but activity on the Chargers has slid the line to LA -2.5. This line movement comes with good reason, as the Chargers are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 games. Last week on MNF, LA picked up a statement win over the division rival Raiders. They once again looked sensational on offense and defense, where Herbert threw 3 TDs and the defense limited the Vegas offense to just 200 yards. This will certainly be the Browns toughest test yet where they’re coming off games against the Texans, Bears and Vikings. Although their rushing game has been on fire with their duo of Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb, LA’s defense has shown its effectiveness against some of the top backs. Take the Chargers at home to put the Browns in their place. 

Bills @ Chiefs (-3)
For this Sunday night primetime matchup, quarterback Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills journey into Kansas City to steal one against Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs. Kansas City came into this one as three and a half-point favorites, but the current spread favors them by 3 points. With the magic of Mahomes, not much is to be debated on whether or not the Chiefs can cover any game. For their victory over the Eagles last week, Mahomes was able to chip in with a season high 5 touchdown passes. While he already has four interceptions on the year, don’t expect to see any more of those for this season, let alone in this game. He’s starting to heat up, and unfortunately this Bills defense is right on the tracks. Despite the efficient numbers they put up on weaker teams, I do not buy this Buffalo squad at all. Kansas City should make quick work of them if their defense is able to hold up. Take the back-to-back defending AFC champs to safely hit this spread.   

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