Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs
during the second half of an NFL football Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs (14) drops into the end zone for a touchdown against Miami Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard (25) during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 31, 2021, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)


Patrick Werkmeister

Now that it is Week 11 of the NFL, the playoff picture is finally starting to take shape as the regular season heats up. Although some have already definitively staked their postseason claim, even the best teams can lose on any given Sunday during the grind of the regular season. However, if the stars align correctly any team who’s still in the hunt could get in. November football is where the cream rises to the top and I think that will be reflected in some of the wins on Sunday. With that in mind, here are the best bets for this NFL slate.

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Colts (+7) @ Bills
For this AFC matchup, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills host Jonathan Taylor and the Indianapolis Colts. The Bills opened as seven and a half-point home favorites and are currently favored by seven points. Although Buffalo is 7-2 ATS in previous last 10 games at home, Indianapolis comes into this one 3-0 ATS in their last three as a road underdog. While the Colts got off to an awful 0-3 start as they dealt with a ton of injuries, they’ve gone 5-2 since where both of their losses came in overtime. In Week 10, they defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Bills thumped the Jets 45-17. Although QB Carson Wentz has had his moments of embarrassing plays, he has been way better than he’s got credit for with his 17:3 touchdown to interception ratio. He has done a great job of taking care of the ball and has shown that if he continues to do that they will succeed. Across the league this year, teams that did not cover the spread in the previous week versus teams that did cover the previous week are 41-17-1 ATS. With the Bills covering by a landslide last week whereas the Colts did not, this pick seems destined to slam. They are hungry for revenge from last year’s playoff loss and I like where they are at this point in the season in comparison to the Bills. They should easily cover this huge margin. Take Indy plus the points. 

Cowboys @ Chiefs (-2.5)
In this interconference matchup, Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys travel to Arrowhead Stadium to do battle with Pat Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs opened as two and a half-point home favorites in this one and the line has since remained steady. While Dallas is a stellar 5-1 ATS in their last six contests on the road, if Pat Mahomes plays like he did last week there is no defense that can stop him. Last week, Kansas City obliterated the Raiders 41-14 whereas the Cowboys are also coming off of a blowout win over the Falcons. However, the Cowboys 40-point win margin is quite deceptive when you consider the Falcons are a team that is so far gone. During the victory, Ezekiel Elliott was held to just 41 yards rushing where he couldn’t get much going. With star receiver Amari Cooper out this week due to COVID, they may have issues putting together an efficient passing game. As long as Mahomes looks even somewhat like he did last week, they should have no problem securing a victory at home. Take Kansas City to cover in what should be a great game.

Steelers (+6) @ Chargers
From SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, rookie Najee Harris and the Steelers look to steal one on the road against Justin Herbert and the LA Chargers. The Chargers originally opened as three and a half-point home favorites but have been bumped up to a six-point favorite following the uncertainty of QB Ben Roethlisberger’s status. Additionally, the Steelers will also be without star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick because of COVID. Pittsburgh comes into this one an efficient 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games vs LA. In Week 10, they tied with the winless Detroit Lions, whereas the Chargers were defeated by the Minnesota Vikings. Now that they are getting a refreshed Ben Roethlisberger back, they are more well-suited to cover this large spread. Although he has obviously declined in the past few years, Roethlisberger holds the longest active streak without an interception among starting quarterbacks. In that span, he has gone 4-0 SU and has played a big role in that winning streak. He also showed that he still possesses that patented clutch gene of his and still has a little left in the tank. Despite their intimidating offense, Justin Herbert and the Chargers have gone from Super Bowl contender to in the playoff hunt because of their constant offensive inconsistencies. Although they haven’t looked great this year, they should be motivated enough to at least cover this inflated margin. Take Pittsburgh plus the points. 

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