NFL BEST BETS, NOV. 14
Now that it is Week 10 of the NFL, the playoff picture is finally starting to take shape as the regular season heats up. Although some have already definitively staked their postseason claim, there are still pretenders out there in the playoff picture that are total dogs. However, if the stars align correctly any team who’s still in the hunt could get in. November football is where the cream rises to the top and I think that will be reflected in some of the wins on Sunday. With that in mind, here are the best bets for this NFL slate.
Falcons @ Cowboys (Over 54.5)
In this NFC contest, Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys look to redeem themselves vs Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons. After opening at 50.5 points, this total has moved to O/U 57.5. The total has gone over in 10 of Dallas’ previous 15 games and in four of Atlanta’s last five games. Additionally, the total has gone over in four of the Falcons’ last five games on the road, while the total has also gone over in six of the Cowboys’ last seven home games. Last season when these two met, they combined for 79 points so it should be another relatively high-scoring affair. Despite both of their struggles, both have very productive offences accompanied by weak defenses. This combination of skills (or lack thereof) is a perfect mix for this over to slam. Although Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense was handled in their defeat last week, they are primed for a bounce back in this match. However, Matt Ryan and the Falcons may have the tools to keep pace with their offense. Neither defense has shown up to a single game so far and I don’t expect that to change here. Even though this is a high total, this game will be a track meet and the outcome may come down to whoever has the ball last. Take the over to slam in this matchup.
Lions (+6.5) @ Steelers
From Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, rookie running back Najee Harris and the Steelers host fellow running back D’Andre Swift and the Detroit Lions. The Steelers opened as nine and a half-point home favorites but have since been bet down to six and a half following the positive COVID testing of QB Ben Roethlisberger. Additionally, the Steelers will also be without star wideout Chase Claypool because of a toe injury. Pittsburgh comes into this one a surprising 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs NFC opponents. In Week 9, they narrowly defeated the Chicago Bears in a last second field goal, whereas Detroit was serving their bye. Now that they are without Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh will have to turn to backup Mason Rudolph to get the job done under center. Although he has shown some forms of production, Rudolph has thrown 15 touchdowns for a whopping 10 interceptions. Ideally, a backup should be a great decision-maker and avoid making mistakes at all costs and he does not do a great job of that. With all of these injuries combined with their healthy assets, Pittsburgh shouldn’t be this large of a favorite against anyone, even the winless Lions. Despite their record, led by Jared Goff, this squad has shown flashes of winning football. They have had a ton of time to prepare for this one, and they are extremely hungry to get their first win of the season. Although they haven’t looked great this year, they should be motivated enough to at least cover this huge margin. Take Detroit plus the points.
Seahawks @ Packers (-3.5)
For this game of the week, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers faceoff against Russell Wilson and the visiting Seattle Seahawks. The Packers opening line favored them as six-point home favorites and they are currently favored by three and a half. While Seattle is 3-0 ATS in their last three games, Green Bay is a flawless 8-0 ATS in their last eight overall and are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite. Last week, Green Bay suffered an agonizing defeat with their backup quarterback, Jordan Love, against the Kansas City Chiefs. Although their offense was stagnant all game and couldn’t get anything going, their defense looked great against the defending back-to-back AFC champions. However, in Week 9 the Seattle Seahawks got a little extra rest and enjoyed their bye week. Now that their All-Pro QB Russell Wilson is returning, it should help them a little bit in the long run. However, he shouldn’t be the difference maker in this one now that Green Bay’s own MVP Aaron Rodgers is returning. I expect to him to have far more success against this shoddy Seattle D than Wilson should versus the Packers formidable defense. Lay the points and take the Packers to cover at home.