New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones
New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) hands the ball off to running back Brandon Bolden (25) during the second half of an NFL football game against the Cleveland Browns, Sunday, Nov. 14, 2021, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Stew Milne)


Patrick Werkmeister

Following a terrific 3-0 performance for Sunday’s NFL edition of best bets, this Monday night game is a great opportunity to stay hot. In this AFC East matchup, Mac Jones and the New England Patriots travel to Buffalo to face off against Josh Allen and the Bills. Last week, the Buffalo Bills thumped the Saints 31-6 whereas the Patriots convincingly defeated the Tennessee Titans 36-13. These teams’ stocks have risen significantly, but one will be taking a step back following the final whistle. With this in mind, here is what I love for this MNF action.

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Bills (-2.5)
The Bills opened this game as three and a half-point home favorites but they are currently favored by just two and a half. Although the Pats are 6-0 ATS in their previous six games, Buffalo is an efficient 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall. Additionally, New England is a shoddy 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games played during primetime. Although the Bills have proven they are a lock for the postseason, they still must overcome the up-and-coming division rival New England Patriots. However, New England have flaws of their own with their offense and a lot of questions that have no answers. The offense has mainly benefited from the brilliance of Bill Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. In Week 12, they blew out a weakened Titans team that was without Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, and Julio Jones. Although this Patriots defensive unit is among the top of the league, they have been scorched in each tough test they have had against teams such as the Cowboys. With a record of 8-4, I believe New England is definitely not as elite as their record suggests. Take Buffalo by this small margin at home, where they matchup extremely well with this Patriots squad.

Mac Jones Over 201.5 Passing Yards
After throwing for over 300 yards and two touchdowns in their Week 12 victory, Mac Jones should be airing it out all game versus this shoddy Bills pass defense. Following the loss of Buffalo’s All-Pro corner Tre’Davious White, their pass defense has gone from average to bad. He had made massive contributions to the team’s success, and they have suffered slightly since his absence. Last week, the stingy Bills defense did not allow 200 passing yards versus the Saints and Trevor Siemian, but I expect Mac Jones and the elite mind of Bill Belichick to have much more success. Jones has only not hit this yardage mark twice this season, so expect him to at least keep it close. Therefore, I imagine Mac will produce while the Bills focus on stopping the run first. Take the over for Mac Jones’s passing prop. 

Any Time TD (+320)
Following subpar outings in his last two performances, slot guy Cole Beasley should be very productive in the passing attack after seemingly recovering from a rib injury. He has only totaled 69 yards receiving on nine total catches in the past two weeks. However, he does have nearly 80 targets and 62 catches already on the year, so he has been a big part of their offense. Beasley is a premium slot receiver in the NFL and with his touchdown prop looking this juicy, it must be taken advantage of. With Bills star receiver Stefon Diggs playing his best football, all focus will be on him leaving Beasley wide open. Although the Pats boast as one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, this will be the first meeting between these two this year, so New England hasn’t really seen a team of this caliber. He has had some monstrous outings this year where he has had double digit targets in 5 of his 11 games played. With how big of a threat, he is in the slot, he’ll make teams pay that give him any space at all. Expect Cole to bounce back and have an overall big night and take him to get it done on the receiving end. 

Same Game Parlay
Cole Beasley Anytime TD Scorer, Mac Jones Over 201.5 Pass Yds, Josh Allen Over 35.5 Rush Yds, Stefon Diggs Over 60.5 Rec Yds, Hunter Henry Over 24.5 Rec Yds, Under 44.5 Total Points and Bills to win by 1-13 Pts.

SGP Odds +32529

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