Louisville vs. Mississippi Best Bets, Sept. 6
College football Week 1 madness will be going out with a bang on Monday night as we arrive at our final matchup. This lone contest will take place in Atlanta for the Chick-Fil-A Kickoff game between the Ole Miss Rebels and Louisville Cardinals. Now that football betting season is heating up, the gears are starting to turn for degenerates who are looking to find their rhythm in these coming months. By noticing basic patterns and trends from previous games over this year, it will become simpler to compare and forecast matchups. Following this week, that can become an effective element of the strategy for this season’s success, but still in this one, only older data and precognition serve as our guides. Here is what I love and why I love it for this college edition of MNF.
Ole Miss (-10.5)
The spread between these schools opened up with the Rebels as 8 point favorites, but with a majority of the public jumping on that, the current line is at 10.5. For Louisville, the favorite has covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 contests. This program has been a textbook example of a team who wins and loses games they are expected to. Although QB Malik Cunningham is coming back this year and is one of the few bright spots for the Cardinals, last season he was a turnover machine as Louisville went 4-7 under him. After putting up big numbers last year, Ole Miss QB Matt Corral is listed as one of the best SEC quarterbacks coming into this highly anticipated season for the Rebels. Unfortunately, he will have to play without the aid of his head coach and former Alabama coordinator Lane Kiffin, who recently tested positive for COVID-19. Under Corral, Ole Miss averaged a staggering 560 yards of offense and 39 points per game in 2020. They will seek similar results this year with a majority of the players from their high-powered offense returning, while Louisville will have plenty of inexperience on their side. With Ole Miss having stronger competition in the SEC compared to the top heavy ACC, expect to see the Rebels play consistent football where they should have full control in this one. Although the line has moved considerably, I am still more than comfortable with this margin.
In an expected high scoring affair, Vegas oddsmakers have listed the total points for this game at 75.5. Although Louisville normally runs a slower paced offensive style, Ole Miss should be able to put up points early and often, which will prevent the Cardinals from laying back and taking their time on offense. Last season against Alabama, the Rebels dropped a massive 48 bomb on Nick Saban’s stout defense. Additionally, over the course of that year Ole Miss’ offense never scored less than 26 points in a game. The Louisville defense is where they have suffered the most losses, so expect to see the high-octane Rebel offense full steam ahead. In 12 of Louisville’s previous 16 games the total has gone over largely because of their defensive squad. While the Cardinals defense needs vast improvements, neither defense shows outstanding ability to keep teams out of the end zone. The Ole Miss defense allowed an abysmal 38.3 ppg over 10 games in 2020, while Louisville gave up a subpar 27.2 per contest. Both offenses have high potential for putting up ludicrous numbers versus one another in this one, so don’t let this number fool you and bet the over.