Hangover Monday: Hangover Monday: Drinkin’ the Green Kool-Aid, April 5
The time is here. Grab your inhaler, your pepto, and your booze and make sure you’re off work by the time the National Championship tips off because it’s going to be one that you don’t want to miss. This is an intense National Championship because it truly comes down to the two best teams in the tournament. Take away COVID, and Baylor could have also gone undefeated this season. Hell, take away COVID and give us last year’s tournament and this may have been the Natty that we witnessed last year as well.
Both teams took drastically different paths in the Final Four to get to this spot tonight but nonetheless we get to watch it all unfold on the greatest stage. Baylor has been playing at an insanely high level and when you knock off a team by 19 points in the Final Four, you are coming to absolutely wreck some shit.
Before we dive into tonight and give you a free play for the game, we should discuss exactly what went down this weekend and how it helped shape the line that we have tonight.
In our Saturday Best Bets, we had Baylor and Gonzaga covering, Jalen Suggs over on points, and a great value bet of Baylor winning the Natty at +270. So far we are two of three on those predictions and that Natty line jumped all the way down by 100 points coming into tonight’s game for the Bears so we hope you hammered it when you should have.
Baylor came into that Houston game as a five-point favorite and while I thought there was no doubt that the Bears would cover that number, I did not see them winning by 19. In fact, I actually live-bet Houston +19.5 midway through that game thinking the Cougs could get it to 10 and I got saved by a backdoor cover. The Bears treated the bettors right in this game, coming away with 87 percent of the handle and 78 percent of the bets on them covering the spread. Baylor has now covered in their last four games.
In the Gonzaga game, I really thought the UCLA hype train was going to come to an end. We did tell you way back in the trend that throwing a $10 wager on UCLA +700 wasn’t a horrible idea just for the fun of it and damn did we come close or what. 14.5 was a ton of points to lay, no doubt, but have you seen this Gonzaga team play over the last month? The Zags actually trailed in a lot of this game and the live bet was not wavering, never giving bettors an opportunity to take Gonzaga by any less than -5.5. The public got absolutely torched on this game with 81 percent of the handle and 70 percent of the bets going on the good old Christian boys of Spokane. That was one hell of a fight by UCLA and I was praying for a double overtime, but props to the Bulldogs for pulling that one off.
Now that brings us to tonight. Had Gonzaga not gone to an overtime and maybe just won that game by 4 or 5 points in regulation, I think the 4.5 point spread tonight is a little closer to 6 to 6.5. It kind of burned us all and some recency bias is really affecting the line. Nonetheless, I am not going to complain because I will take the points wherever I can get them.
Here is our Free Play. I think that Baylor +4.5 is the absolute move coming into this game. You have a Bears team that is coming in with the confidence of throwing around a 2-seed like they were a ladies JV basketball team. On the other hand, you have a Gonzaga squad that may have momentum but in the back of their heads knew they almost lost to an 11-seed and had to exert the effort of another 5-minute period to get it done. Baylor has the best three-point shooting team in the country and they showed that off on Saturday with 45 percent shooting. If they can keep Mark Vital out of foul trouble and keep him glued to Andrew Timme, the Bears are the team I really like tonight and the fact that I am getting points is even better.
RIP Mattress Mack:
No he isn’t dead but I love it when this guy entertains us with insane bets. This dude threw $1 million on Houston to win the NCAA Tournament at +900 and honestly what a ride it was. That dude must have been drinking the pepto on Saturday after that blowout loss.
All Praise the Buzzer:
The shot that set up this all holy matchup between two private Christian universities made me a lot of money. We told you to take Jalen Suggs OVER 14.5 points. Before he banked that three to win it, he was sitting at 13. Our money = resurrected.