Degens Only: Wednesday Plays, Feb. 10
Sports betting has no second place. “If you’re not first, you’re last.” To quote the great Ricky Bobby, “sometimes you seemingly can get it all right, but fall victim to the wrong outcome.” That’s how last night has me feeling after a couple of last-minute losses. With 17 seconds left and down six, the Kings decided they still had a prayer and sent the Sixers to the line. Before the two shots, Philly was sitting at 117 points. After both shots fall, the Kings decide that’s enough, and Philly wins the game with 119 TT. The match between Winnipeg and Calgary was back and forth all game, but with just under two minutes left in regulation, Calgary was able to sneak the game winner past goal. To end on a high note, the Blazers were able to handle the Magic rather easily.
I just want to put out a quick PSA and remind everyone that spring training starts in 17 days. With a plethora of big names in new places, it is time to start fine tuning our predictions for this upcoming MLB season. With that being said, let’s make some money with Wednesday’s top four plays.
Cover with the Cavs: Virginia -4
The first game these two played tells a large part of why I like Virginia to cover this small chalk. Virginia won the first matchup by two points – let’s take a quick look at the stats behind that game. It’s no secret that this Georgia Tech team can put up some points as Tech was able to shoot 60% from three, a number I doubt we are going to see again in this matchup. They also shot over their season average at the charity stripe, shooting 83% for the game. Add on eight steals as Tech was plus three in the turnover battle. Despite all of those impressive numbers, they still lost by two. Don’t be misunderstood, this was also an average performance by this Virginia team. The second part of this equation is the huge difference between the Virginia offense and the Tech defense. Virginia comes in at fifth in the country in EFG%, while Georgia Tech’s defense ranks 247th in defensive EFG. Virginia shoots the three very well ranking seventh in the country hitting 39% of their 3’s, while Tech is one of the worst defensive three-point teams, allowing 37% of threes to fall and ranked 290th in the country. To wrap this all up its more likely we see Tech shoot a three-point percentage closer to what this Virginia defense usually allows around 34%. That alone would result in 12 less points than their last meeting: Take Virginia -4
Don’t Doubt Drake: Drake -9
We all know or should know at this point about the incredible ATS run Drake went on earlier this season. There could be some worry about how this team will respond after their upset loss to Valparaiso, but I expected this line to be a little higher. The long and the short of it is this Drake team can ball, and I expect them to come back in a big way. As for Northern Iowa, they have not fared well against offenses in the top 120. They are 1-7 in those games and have lost them all by nine or more points except two of them. Expect Drake to respond and Lay the 9 with Drake
Win with Wichita: Wichita St. -1
Having gone 8-2 SU in their last 10, this Wichita St. team is like fine wine it comes together and gets better the longer it ages. This game should end up being pretty close throughout, but the Shockers should find a way to get this one done. Wichita St. is 8-1 VS teams that have an offense ranked outside the top 120, UCF ranks 122. The shockers are 1-4 VS defenses inside the top 50 and 8-0 VS defenses outside the top 50 UCF ranks 94th on defense. Take the Shockers to get the win -1.
Count on Connecticut: Connecticut -1
Providence has been very disappointing over the second half of their season going 3-7 in their last 10. They struggle to shoot the three, ranking 222 in the country and an EFG of only 49. Providence struggles vs good defense as they’re 3-6 VS defenses in the top 75. Connecticut is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country ranking fifth, giving them some good opportunities at second chance points that Providence will not. The Huskies also play at an absolute crawl of a pace which will limit the possessions by Providence forcing them to play a near perfect game to come away with the upset. Count on the Huskies to cover the -1