Buffalo Bills wide receiver Cole Beasley
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Cole Beasley (11) celebrates with quarterback Josh Allen (17) after they teamed up for a touchdown pass against the Tennessee Titans in the first half of an NFL football game Monday, Oct. 18, 2021, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Zaleski)


Patrick Werkmeister

For this primetime Thanksgiving night matchup, head coach Sean Payton and the New Orleans Saints host the Buffalo Bills and coach Sean McDermott. Although Buffalo suffered a blowout 41-17 loss to the Colts, New Orleans was also swiftly defeated by the Philadelphia Eagles. Both of these teams are struggling to put together four good quarters of football, but I think that one team’s season will get back on track tonight. With that in mind, here is what bets I love about this holiday action.

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Bills (-6.5)
The Bills opened as slim three and a half-point road favorite but have since been bet up after it was announced Alvin Kamara is out in this one and they are currently favored by six and a half points. Although Buffalo is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall, they are 4-1 ATS this season against teams with a sub .500 record. After Colts running back Jonathan Taylor went nuclear on the Bills in Week 11, the Buffalo defense should have better luck vs the Saints third string running back, Tony Brown. Although they were unable to put up a substantial number of points on offense, they were massively outgained in time of possession, so if they can avoid the mistakes, they made last week they should be able to score with ease. New Orleans has dropped three straight with one loss coming from the current worst team in the league, the Atlanta Falcons. Now that they’ll be without all-pro running back Alvin Kamara, the Saints stand virtually no chance on offense to take control of this game. As long as Josh Allen and the offense can take care of the ball and keep this defense from making plays, they should handle them easily. Take Buffalo minus the points to defeat the Saints.

Cole Beasley Over 39.5 Receiving Yards
Following subpar outings in his last two performances, slot guy Cole Beasley should be very productive in the passing attack after seemingly recovering from a rib injury. He has only totaled 38 yards receiving on six total catches in the past two weeks. However, he does have nearly 80 targets and 60 catches already on the year, so he has been a big part of their offense. Beasley is a premium slot receiver in the NFL and with his receiving total this low, it must be taken advantage of. With Bills star receiver Stefon Diggs playing his best football, all focus will be on him leaving Beasley wide open. The Saints are allowing 252 passing yards on average per game this year, which is the seventh worst in the league. He has had some monstrous outings this year where has had double digit targets in 5 of his 10 games played. With how big of a threat, he is in the slot, he’ll make teams pay that give him any space at all. Expect Cole to bounce back and have an overall big night and take him to get it done on the receiving end. 

Josh Allen Any Time TD (+180)
With a limited number of options on the ground for the Bills, quarterback Josh Allen serves as the primary offensive target. Although their offense looked lost in Week 11, after going down big early, Josh Allen was never really presented with the opportunity to run the ball. However, on the year he has three rushing touchdowns and has been dominant on the ground in the red zone. The Saints are a formidable run defense, but when the Bills call Allen’s number inside the five, nearly no defense can keep him at bay. This prop has tremendous value given he leads their team in rushing touchdowns. Take him to score one in what should be a rout of the Saints.

Same Game Parlay
Josh Allen Anytime TD Scorer, Taysom Hill Anytime TD Scorer, Josh Allen Over 278.5 Pass Yds, Devin Singletary Over 10.5 Rec Yds, Cole Beasley Over 39.5 Rec Yds, Tre’Quan Smith Over 40.5 Rec Yds, Buffalo Bills to win by 1-13 Pts and Under 50.5 Pts.

SGP Odds $2.50 to win $1,272

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