Lambeau Field

Best Player Props for the Divisional Round

It. Is. Playoff. Day. Well, there are actually two playoff days this weekend but you get the gist for what we are going for. It should be a wild couple of days in the NFL and we are all here for it. On Saturday, we have the Packers hosting the Rams and the Ravens taking on the Bills in Buffalo. On Sunday, we’ve got Kansas City hosting Cleveland and the Buccaneers trying to win on the road in New Orleans. 

As the competition tightens and we get to less teams with more talent, it can be hard to predict certain spreads and over/unders, especially with weather factoring into the equation. Thankfully, that’s where the player props come in handy. In this article, we are going to break down our Sports Gambling Guides favorite player props this weekend. 

Running Away From the Weather: OVER Lamar Jackson rush yards (76.5) 

For all the weather geeks out there, we have a doozy of an opportunity here thanks to the frigid Buffalo temps in this one. At game time, Bills Stadium is going to be right around 33 degrees with a 30 percent chance of rain. Before this game starts, it’s expected to snow flurries up until three hours until kickoff. This should make for rough conditions, a decrease in the passing game if it’s wet, and a pound and ground contest. Jackson’s rush yard total is set at 76.5, a number he’s gone over in five of his last six games. He rushed for 136 last week and the run game will be even more important in this one. If you want to sprinkle him in as an anytime touchdowns scorer at +100, that doesn’t hurt either. 

One Thumb Bum: UNDER Jared Goff passing yards (216.5) 

Jared Goff had thumb surgery on his throwing hand just two weeks ago and is pretty much limited to four fingers as the starting quarterback this week. He played okay last week, hitting on nine of 19 passes for 155 yards. But with the temperature in Green Bay hitting an average of 35 degrees at gametime, this shouldn’t treat Goff well. He’s a California kid who went to UCLA and plays for the Rams. He has played in just two below freezing games in his NFL career and he has thrown for five interceptions with a passing rating of 34.5. The Rams are trying to keep the ball out of his hands and if he really struggles, it could be Blake Bortles time for LA. 

Gronk Spike: Rob Gronkowski anytime touchdown scorer (+225) 

The Bucs and the Saints will be an epic showdown and it will most likely be a nail-biter to the very end. If there is one player that Tom Brady has real chemistry with on the Bucs, it’s Rob Gronkowski. The big tight end was the second most-targeted receiver in the red zone for the Buccaneers this season and reeled in seven touchdown passes. Last week, he wasn’t involved much as he was asked to block the stellar defensive line of Washington, but this week Brady will rely on him, especially near the endzone. Gronk has reeled in 12 postseason touchdown passes from Tom Brady in his career, that number could increase after this week. 

Let Mahomes Cook: Patrick Mahomes OVER 2.5 TD Passes

Did you see Patrick Mahomes ‘like” Odell Beckham Jr.’s tweet about the Browns winning on Sunday? If not, just know that the Browns have dug their own graves because they just fueled the NFL’s best quarterback. Mahomes likes to make a statement with his arm and this could be another example of that. Last playoffs, Mahomes threw for three or more touchdown passes in two of the Chiefs three games. In 2020, there were five total times where he put up at least three passing touchdowns in a game. Now the Chiefs are facing a Browns defense that ranks in the bottom 10th of the league in passing touchdowns and 25th overall in passing defense. Without Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Mahomes will be airing it out. 

One Fun Longshot: Alvin Kamara 1st Touchdown Scorer (+500) 

I call this a longshot just because I believe that all 1st touchdown scorer props are unwise bets. But if you have $10-$15 lying around, this is a pretty good value for a player who scored a total of 21 touchdowns this season. Kamara scored three touchdowns against the Bucs this season and will be used in the passing game pretty heavily in this game. The likelihood of him catching or running the first Saints touchdown isn’t all that bad for this value.

Latest Team / Player News