Best Bets: Favorites in the Final Four, April 4
We are entering the final weekend here of March Madness and I for one am fucking depressed about it. Honestly, just going through this week without some form of college basketball already began to suck. We have basketball mammoth Gonzaga taking on a once-was program in UCLA. Then we have the Christian boys in Baylor taking on Houston. If Gonzaga and Baylor ultimately end up playing in the National Championship, it should be a great excuse to head to Church on Easter Sunday and pray that your bet for Monday’s game hits.
For this weekend’s best bets I’ll go ahead and give you my best bets for the two Final Four games, a best value bet for a potential National Championship winner, and one player prop.
Baylor (-5) vs Houston
Baylor has one of the best backcourts in the NCAA and maybe the best one that we have seen in this tournament. I truly believe the Bears would have gone undefeated had they not run into issues with COVID-19 down the stretch and had to take a few weeks off. What I really like about Baylor heading into this matchup is that they have faced the tougher competition all season long. Houston doesn’t face a ton of stiff opponents in the Southwest Conference, and they’ve played close games in almost every game this tournament as the favorite. Now that they are underdogs, keeping up will be the tough challenge with this Baylor offense. Even when this Baylor offense stutters, the defense has been there to make up for it, forcing 69 turnovers (very nice) so far in March. Five is not a ton of points for Baylor to cover considering they have hit the number at 25.5, 6.5, 7.5, and 7.5.
Gonzaga (-14.5) vs Houston
Yes, this number is absolutely massive. But guess what, Gonzaga is an absolute unit of a team. The best thing that UCLA has going for it is the defense that absolutely locked down Michigan. Unfortunately for them, Gonzaga is not the same team as Michigan and this is the number one offense according to KenPom. Gonzaga blew out their first opponent and put up nearly 100 points, but if you take that game out of the equation, they still average 85 points per game. What concerns me about UCLA is that their saving grace has been their top performer Johnny Juzang. If he has an off-night, this whole team tanks and I could see him having that off night considering that Gonzaga has Jalen Suggs, Corey Kispert, Drew Timme, and Joel Ayayi. The favorites have been killers in Final Four games since 2005, going 23-17. I love this Gonzaga team and I just don’t see them not dominating UCLA.
Player Prop: Jalen Suggs over 14.5 Points
Suggs is going to be a top-three draft pick in the NBA and he deserves to be. He averages exactly 14 points per game and he has gone over that number in two of the last three. He has not been a hot three-point shooter in this tournament but he finally turned it on in the last game, going 2-4 from three.
Value Natty Bet: Baylor +250
Right now there is no value in betting on Gonzaga to win the National Championship. They are already very in the negative money for winning the Natty. I see Baylor cruising to Monday’s game and I think that will be a much tighter game than the spread will probably appear to be. When the four teams go down to two, you can guarantee at least 40-75 points coming off of this number that is currently available.