Best Bets: Champ Sunday, Jan 23
By the time that this weekend ends, we could see two of the most classic Conference Championship games that the NFL has ever seen. It’s a battle between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers in game one. It’s their fifth head-to-head matchup against each other and another test for Tom Brady to prove the doubters wrong and show that a man halfway into a senior citizen home can still sling it with the best of them. In the other, the young, proven superstar in Mahomes will try to fend off a young, unproven budding star in Allen.
I have two hopes for Sunday. The first is that the games are going to be downright kick ass. The second is that I, and hopefully you, will win a boatload of money on the bets we are about to hand out to you. This is the last time we get two football games in one day until August, so you’d better cancel your plans and bet away that money you’ve been keeping under the mattress. Here are our Championship Sunday best bets.
These Dudes Score a Shit Ton Bet: TB/GB OVER 51.5
Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers hitting the field together is going to be an all-time matchup. We are used to seeing Brady face off against guys like Peyton Manning, Ben Rothlisberger, and Patrick Mahomes in Championship games and now Aaron Rodgers can be added to that list.
Brady is an OVER god in the playoffs. Since 2010, he has hit the posted number at a rate of 16-9-1. That’s the same time period that Rodgers has been suiting up in the postseason for the Packers. Speaking of the Packers quarterback, he isn’t too bad himself when it comes to hitting the posted number. He has gone 13-6 on the OVER in his postseason career.
When these two teams play each other, the total has gone over in four of their last six. With the Bucs having a strong rushing defense, expect Rodgers to air it out in this one. Add in the wind that is expected as well and we are going to see plenty of 4th down conversions that keep drives alive.
Good teams win, Great Teams Cover Bet: Buffalo Bills +3
Have you seen the Bills record against the spread this season? It’s 12-6 while the Chiefs are just 6-10-1 against the book. Buffalo really is the degenerate’s team. In their last 10, the Bills have covered 9 of those games whereas in the last 9, Kansas City hasn’t covered a single time.
It sounds like Patrick Mahomes will be good to go when this game kicks off but I’m not sure how much trust I’m putting in a quarterback who looked like he was doing a stanky leg after attempting to just stand up straight last week. Concussions are no joke and Mahomes isn’t going to be playing at 100 percent.
Buffalo is a 3-point dog here but with Allen’s big arm and the way that Buffalo defense has been playing, it feels like this has the potential to be a very close game. Andy Reid likes to win, not cover and that is why he is 3-4 ATS as a home favorite in the postseason since becoming head coach of the Chiefs.
We’re Not In Kansas Anymore: TB/GB UNDER 3.5 Field Goals Made
The weather is not going to treat Mason Crosby or Ryan Succop well in this game. It should be very cold, very windy, and likely snowing at the kick of this game and after one or two missed attempts, it isn’t unfathomable to see both Matt Lafleur and Bruce Arians shy away from their kickers for the rest of the game.
These two both have been excellent kickers this season, but this is a prop bet that seems like an absolute lock. Expect the points to come from Brady and Rodgers and not from the kicking game in this one.
Put it on the Board: Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+125)
I am genuinely confused as to why Mike Evans is in the positive when it comes to scoring a touchdown in this one. Evans reeled in 13 touchdown passes this season and caught one last week as well despite playing on a banged up leg.
The Bucs will be without Antonio Brown in this game which opens up the field for a guy like Evans. When the Bucs get into the red-zone, Evans is targeted more than 21 percent of the time which leads the Bucs. Brady likes to go with guys he can depend on and Evans has become that guy. For plus money, this seems like too easy of a bet to throw some cash on.