Christian Yelich | Milwaukee Brewers
Christian Yelich | Milwaukee Brewers

Best Bets: Bucks and Brewers, July 3

I’m ready to grab a beer, light a sparkler, and sit my ass on the couch and watch sports all damn weekend and the only thing that can make that any better is to bet on them while I’m at it. I am writing this directly after a 4th of July parade that actually occurred on July 3rd which makes no sense at all. In a small town, these kinds of things really bring everyone out to watch and you realize that there are some really weird fucking people on this Earth. So I am more incentivized than ever before to do absolutely nothing but be a spectator of sports from my own home. 

Let’s jump right into the biggest game which is the Eastern Conference Finals Game 6 between the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks. It felt like the Hawks had the Bucks on the ropes after game 4 but Milwaukee took care of business without Giannis and cruised to an easy victory, 123-112. 

Giannis has already been ruled out for Game 6 and Trae Young is doubtful so I am feeling some mild confidence in the Bucks. But this game will be played in Atlanta. The Hawks are just 2-3 ATS the spread at home in  their last 10 games and they are favored in this matchup by 2 points. This is the first time in the last 10 games that the Hawks have even been favored and if it is without Trae, I don’t love this line for Atlanta. 

The Bucks showed in their last outing that if they get production from Middleton, Lopez, and Holiday, that they can control the tempo of the game and dominate. Without the scorer in there that Trae Young is, I don’t feel all that confident in the Hawks being able to force a Game 7. But my favorite bet in this game is the OVER 216.5. Without Giannis, the Bucks lose a massive defensive weapon and they have still proven that they can score at a high clip. I think the Hawks can have their way on offense and that the Bucks will respond nicely to that.

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MLB
I’ve been running a hot little MLB streak and I am looking to keep it going in the Angels and Orioles game. Last night, these two teams combined to score 15 runs and Shohei Ohtani homered twice to put him over the 30 mark before we even get to the All Star break. The OVER has been set at nine runs in this game, which it should fly over. 

The Angels are pounding the ball right now and don’t look to slow down six batters over 100 wRC+ in June against right-handers. They will face Jorge Lopez who is up there in ERA with a number that hovers around six and has allowed 12 earned runs in his last three starts. Couple that with the Angels having a bullpen that has a 4.73 ERA and I am confident that both of these teams will do a fine job of scoring runs. 

The other game that I am high on is the Brewers and Pirates game. The Brew crew is the hottest team in Major League Baseball right now with 10 straight wins and now 50 on the year. They are taking on a Pirates squad that they beat the last two nights and are on a five-game losing streak. You can get the Brewers on a -1.5 run line at -102 which is incredible value for a matchup between two teams that are headed in very different directions.

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